The economic recession in Russia, which began in the fourth quarter of last year, will continue into the second quarter of 2009, the government said in an updated version of its socioeconomic forecast on Wednesdayaccording to RIA Novosti.
The government said rescue measures introduced would begin to yield results by the end of the second quarter. Late last year, the government pledged a total of 325 billion rubles ($11.7 billion) to prop up the real economy badly hit by the global financial crisis.
Russian exports will see a 45% decline and investment will fall 13.8% in 2009, the government said. The basic scenario is based on a Urals oil price of $41 a barrel.
The oil production forecast takes into account a lack of funding required to maintain production at old oil fields, mainly in Western Siberia, and develop new ones in Eastern Siberia and the Timan-Pechora province, as well as current taxes, RBC reports.
Oil refining is predicted at 237m tonnes, with exports of oil products expected at 117.3m tonnes against the background of a slight increase (up 0.2 percent from 2008) in domestic consumption.
"GDP growth could decline 4-5 percentage points," the document said.
The Economic Development and Trade Ministry said on Wednesday budget spending would decline 1% year-on-year to 3.1% of GDP and reiterated that industrial growth would drop to 7.4%.