The irregular trend of marine bunker prices is expected to becontinued on the coming week. The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) >>>>.
During the week oil prices have been weakened by indications of slower than expected growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The U.S. government released its final revision on fourth-quarter economic growth, saying the U.S. grew at an annualized rate of 0.4% (i.e. below the 0.5% rate forecast). Jobless claims rose by a bigger-than-expected 16,000. The U.S. factory activity grew at its slowest rate in three months in March indicating questionable outlook for oil demand.
Oil market also is concerned about rising oil inventories in the U.S..Energy Information Administration’s report showed that U.S. oil stockpiles climbed to the highest level in more than 22 years. The build in inventory may be considered as a sign of a weak economy that is still struggling to recover, and limiting oil demand growth.
The shutdown of Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Pegasus pipeline due to leak still remains one of the drivers of market activity. The pipeline problem could potentially contribute about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a week to crude inventories at Cushing and is likely to keep crude oil stuck in the Midwest, depressing prices. U.S. pipeline agency said Apr.02 that Exxon would need to test and submit a remedial work plan before it could resume operations. The company hasn't given a likely date for restarting the line yet.
Chinese manufacturing data seemed to miss market expectations, signaling the potential for slower demand growth in the world's second-largest oil consumer. At the same time, according to OPEC evaluation, China is on course to overtake the U.S. as the world’s top crude importer by 2014, as America’s fracking boom cuts the need for foreign oil.
European economic situation with reports this week showing unemployment up in the euro zone, demand for oil been hit by seasonal refinery maintenance and the financial problems in Cyprus and Italy's political gridlock, also adds to concerns about demand for oil.
It is also expected that the coming weekend may bring a price risk, with the next round of negotiations between the P5+1 (the five members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) and Iran. The two sides agreed to meet in Almaty again on April 5-6 for the next round of negotiations after “expert-level” talks in Istanbul on March 17-18. The progress in nuclear talks would probably put downward pressure on oil prices.
We forecast that marine bunker prices will keep irregulartrend on the coming week while the signs for the possible downward movement are becoming more visible.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-04-04 |
595 |
611 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-04-04 |
705 |
768 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-04-04 |
619 |
650 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-04-04 |
733 |
827 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-04-04 |
550 |
570 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-04-04 |
465 |
595 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-04-04 |
628 |
715 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-04-04 |
743 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-04-04 |
645 |
814 |
|
Busan 2012-04-04 |
750 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-04-04 |
622 |
765 |
|
Fujairah 2012-04-04 |
736 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent= $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI)= $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Apr. 03 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$94.45 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$107.11 |