Expert predicts downward trend in bunker fuel prices next week
Oil slipped alongside falling equities on signs the U.S. Federal Reserve might reduce its stimulus programme as soon as next month, the market expert Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) said Thursday.
At the same time the disappointing employment data (there were 162 000 jobs added in July: the smallest gain in four months and below the 175 000 - 185 000 expected) still keeps hopes that the Fed might continue its $85 billion a month in government bond purchases at least until the end of the year.
Overall US crude-oil stockpiles have dropped sharply in recent weeks, with the country still in the peak-demand summer driving season. The weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration report said crude inventories declined again by 1.32 million barrels (forecast was 1.2 million-barrel decline). The EIA also reported small rises in gasoline and distillates stocks, in contrast to expected declines. Meanwhile Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, dropped 2.25 million barrels to 39.9 million last week. However the market showed little reaction as inventories are all within limits of what was expected.
This week fuel indexes also were under pressure as supply risk premiums come off after an easing tension in the Middle East. Newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called for dialogue to reduce "antagonism and aggression". In reply the US said it was ready to work with Iranian government if it were serious about engagement. Possible resolution of a dispute over Iran's nuclear programme would erode a risk factor that has supported oil prices.
As per other supporting factors China's non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed the first acceleration since March. In general, the release of data showing business activity in July recovered some momentum in China, easing fears of a sharp slowdown.
Some support has still been rendering to fuel prices by worries about declines in oil output by key exporters in the Middle East: Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Strikes and protests kept major terminals in Libya shut in the beginning of the week so that oil exports were flowing at less than half normal rates. Shipments from Iraq have also been hit by damage to pipelines, and maintenance work is expected to cut Iraqi output by between 400,000 and 500,000 bpd in September.
Even though some risk premiums have come off, concerns over the crisis in Syria continued to support prices as well. President Bashar al-Assad said crushing "terrorists" must come before any political solution, dimming hopes of an international peace conference.
Bunker fuel prices will likely go slightly downward next week.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-08-08 |
594 |
605 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-08-08 |
630 |
687 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-08-08 |
615 |
632 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-08-08 |
647 |
710 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-08-08 |
556 |
570 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-08-08 |
400 |
440 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-08-08 |
603 |
662 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-08-01 |
645 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-08-08 |
615 |
713 |
|
Busan 2012-08-08 |
664 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-08-08 |
590 |
710 |
|
Fujairah 2012-08-08 |
660 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Aug.07 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$104,37 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$107,44 |