Expert predicts upward trend in bunker fuel prices next week
Fuel prices changed upward during the week under the impact of a number of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, the market expert Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) said Thursday.
One of the main issues was speculations that the Federal Reserve will start soon to pare bond purchases that have bolstered the economy and energy demand. The Fed launched a major bond-buying program more than four years ago to help the U.S. economy to overcome global financial crisis. Recent data have shown that the economy is strengthening. Comments from Fed officials this week indicate the central bank may be ready to begin unwinding a stimulus program as soon as September (the central bank's next policy meeting is set for Sept. 17-18). If the program is drawn down, that could cause a kind of weakness in energy commodities.
Recent positive economic news from China have given additional support to the fuel prices. China's factory output grew in July at its fastest pace since the start of the year, adding to a run of data suggesting the world's second-largest economy may be stabilising after more than two years of slumping growth. Crude oil imports rose to a record, although implied oil demand softened from a four-month high in June.
Meanwhile prices showed little reaction to the International Energy Agency's monthly report in which the agency cut its estimate for global oil demand growth next year. As per IEA, global consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day to 92 million next year and the expansion is 100,000 barrels a day less than its forecast last month. Refinery operating rates will ease after a record surge in July. The International Energy Agency suggested America's shale oil boom was protecting the world from steep oil price spikes.
World fuel market gave positive reaction to data showing that a recession in the eurozone has ended. The European Union countries demonstrated their collective economic output grow by 0.3 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. That's the first quarterly growth rate since the eurozone slipped into recession in the final quarter of 2011.
Market participants are also keeping a close watch on developments in crude producer Libya, after fresh oil supply disruptions there this week. Striking security guards again halted loadings at Libya's two largest crude oil export terminals, Es Sider and RasLanuf, after operations had resumed briefly following a two-week outage. It became the worst disruption to the North African OPEC member's oil industry since the civil war in 2011. The two ports have a combined export capacity of around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd). As per Libya's state National Oil Corporation, it could not provide September loading schedules, which normally due by now, as strikes paralyse its ports.
The supply worries were also heightened by pipeline attacks in Iraq's north and by upcoming maintenance work at Iraq's key southern export hub. It may decline supplies by 500,000 bpd in September. At the same time tensions in Egypt and Syria could spill over into Gulf oil-producing countries and disrupt supplies as well. These Middle East factors are the potential for further support to fuel prices in the medium term. ng the week oil indexes demonstrated downward trend.
We expect bunker fuel prices to continue upward trend next week.
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Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
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|
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|
Rotterdam 2013-08-15 |
605 |
616 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-08-15 |
642 |
703 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-08-15 |
615 |
635 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-08-15 |
664 |
730 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-08-15 |
556 |
576 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-08-15 |
430 |
470 |
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|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-08-15 |
617 |
677 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-08-15 |
655 |
795 |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-08-15 |
621 |
719 |
|
Busan 2012-08-15 |
664 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-08-15 |
601 |
709 |
|
Fujairah 2012-08-15 |
667 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Aug.14 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$106,85 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$110,20 |