The Bunker Review is contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange www.mabux.com
The West has been gearing up for an attack in response to last week’s chemical weapons at-tack in Syria. The attack is believed to have been orchestrad by the Syrian regime. The US President Barack Obama and the U.K.’s Prime Minister Cameron face a decision about whether to attack Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons amid Russian resistance and without a UN mandate. – Any use of force won’t be limited to a one-day operation, according to a US official, who asked not to be identified. - The action against Syria can only start after the UN inspectors report on the alleged chemical attack has been presented.
What will happen with the crude oil prices in case of an attack? We would most likely see a spike in oil prices and as soon as the market understands the extent of the attack prices could come off steeply. How big increase of oil prices can the market expect? WTI could easily reach around $125 a barrel and Brent crude oil around $130 a barrel on a limited operation. In case of prolonged operation oil prices could go higher. Another scenario could be once the military action begins and the extent of conflict becomes more defined oil prices could drop fast.
Prices could also come off quickly after an attack against Syria, since a likelihood of a violent response from Syria, Iran or Russia is seen as low and actual supply losses should remain small.
WTI slipped on Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednes-day that US crude inventories increased by a larger than expected 2.99 million barrels. The biggest gain in four months. Brent may extend losses as a technical indicator shows the market remains overbought.
For next week the situation is unclear. If the attack is imminent oil prices could increase fast and if the coalition is losing momentum the oil prices will most likely go sideways.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-08-29 |
609 |
626 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-08-29 |
640 |
695 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-08-29 |
629 |
649 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-08-29 |
671 |
724 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-08-29 |
562 |
590 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-08-29 |
455 |
530 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-08-29 |
643 |
702 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-08-29 |
665 |
812 |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-08-29 |
635 |
729 |
|
Busan 2012-08-29 |
684 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-08-29 |
615 |
730 |
|
Fujairah 2012-08-29 |
676 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Aug.28 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$110,10 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$116,61 |