Although Brazil, Russia, India and China are suffering from overheated economies, the BRIC region is still generating attractive cargo growth. Container traffic loaded and discharged in the BRIC region’s ports in the first half of the year grew by an impressive 7.1% year-on-year, up to 90.7 million teu, which is significantly better than North America’s 1.2% and Europe’s 0%, Drewry Shipping Consultants reports in its Container Insight Weekly (DCIW).
As Brazil’s, Russia’s, India’s and China’s maritime gateways handle little transhipment traffic, the change is a good barometer of what the downturn in their economies since the beginning of last year has meant to ocean carriers in terms of cargo carried in and out.
Although their economies slowed significantly, the message is that the BRIC region is still very much alive and kicking, with more than enough cargo around to keep ocean carriers happy were it not for the excess newbuild tonnage delivered in their chase for greater economies of scale.
Growth between 1H 12 and 1H 11 was only a slightly higher 7.6%, and this was maintained throughout the whole of 2012, which is a much better picture than that painted in terms of real GDP reductions for the whole of 2012, when Brazil’s output at constant prices fell from 2.7% to 0.9%. Russia’s fell from 4.3% to 3.4%, India’s fell from 7.7% to 4% and China’s fell from 9.3% to 7.8%, compared to overall cargo growth of 7.6%.
The good news is that, despite concerns over rising national debt and inflation, particularly in China and Brazil, 2012’s GDP’s are forecast to increase this year and next, so cargo should grow even more proportionately.
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