Mixed movements in oil prices are expected to prevail during the next week. The Brent crude oil futures prices are going up and the WTI, Light crude oil price fell in the six weeks through November 15, the longest losing streak in 15 years, as U.S. crude inventories expanded amid a production surge. The spread between Brent and WTI was at Wednesday’s close 19,01 in favor of the Brent. The output in U.S. increased by 45 000 barrels a day to 8,02 million in the seven days ended November 22, the most in almost 25 years, the market specialist Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) reports.
Brent futures is around $111 a barrel on Thursday on worries OPEC member Libya isn’t anywhere close to ramping up output as winter oil demand increases, while a bigger than expected rise in U.S. crude stock kept the gains in check. Libya’s Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said his government will be unable to pay public salaries and may have to seek loans if armed militias blockading oilfields and ports from being able to perform any crude shipments. Renewed armed clashes are expected in Libya and creating chaos in Libya two years after the NATO helped to free Libya from Muammar Gaddafi. But a surge in U.S. crude production to the highest since 1989 may mean the upside for oil is limited once demand eases after winter due to a weak global growth outlook. Inventory levels are rising, the demand outlook is weak and there is a possibility of more supplies coming into the market.
In addition, Iranian supplies may increase if Tehran follows through on its commitments reached in the breakthrough deal with world powers over the weekend.
That and dwindling U.S. demand for imported oil, may push prices lower in the next few months. The next big question is where to place and sell the oil that the U.S. used to import.
The price outlook sees a support level for WTI at $92,50 and prices continue falling to $90 a barrel. Over the next few months, there is a possibility that both the benchmarks could head for $80 a barrel mark. Crude oil stocks in the U.S. last week rose almost 3 million barrels to 391 million barrels, the highest levels for November since records began in 1982.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-11-28 |
582 |
624 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-11-28 |
582 |
613 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-11-28 |
604 |
640 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-11-28 |
600 |
640 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-11-28 |
395 |
415 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-11-28 |
500 |
570 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-11-28 |
606 |
669 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-11-28 |
640 |
772 |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-11-28 |
662 |
736 |
|
Busan 2012-11-28 |
635 |
802 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-11-28 |
618 |
745 |
|
Fujairah 2012-11-28 |
606 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Nov. 27 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$92,30 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$111,31 |