MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug 02

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant on Aug.01:

380 HSFO - USD/MT – 430.13 (+4.59)
180 HSFO - USD/MT – 468.74 (+8.19)
MGO - USD/MT – 666.17 (+4.05)

Meantime, world oil crashed on Aug.01 immediately after President Trump announced another round of tariffs on China.

Brent for October settlement decreased by $4.55 to $60.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for September delivery lost $4.63 to $53.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.55 to WTI. Gasoil for August fell by $15.50.

Today morning oil indexes do not have any firm trend so far.

Trump said he would put a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports that, to date, have not been covered by the levies. And the new tariffs, which Trump says will take effect on September 1, come in addition to the existing 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of imports. In other words, at the start of next month, just about everything the U.S. imports from China will be subjected to tariffs. Oil prices plunged by more than 8 percent immediately after the news, pushing WTI below $55 per barrel and Brent down to $61.

The Federal Reserve reduced rates on Jul.31, but against expectations the head of the U.S. central bank said the move might not be the start of a lengthy series of cuts to shore up the economy against global economic weakness.

OPEC oil output hit an eight-year low in July as a further voluntary cut by top exporter Saudi Arabia deepened losses caused by U.S. sanctions on Iran and outages elsewhere in the group. The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 29.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, down 280,000 bpd from June’s revised figure and the lowest OPEC total since 2011. Saudi Arabia is sticking to its plan of voluntarily restraining output by more than called for by an OPEC-led supply deal to support the market. OPEC renewed the supply pact this month, shrugging off pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to pump more.

Iran’s crude exports declined to as little as 100,000 bpd in July, according to tanker data and an industry source, from more than 2.5 million bpd in April 2018. In Venezuela, supply fell slightly due to the impact of a power blackout, U.S. sanctions on state oil company PDVSA and a long-term decline in production. Libyan production dropped due to a stoppage at the Sharara oilfield, the country’s largest. Output fell in Nigeria, but Africa’s largest exporter which is seeking a higher OPEC quota continued to produce above its target by the largest margin. Among countries with higher output, Gulf producers Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates both raised supply while remaining below their OPEC targets.

Iran said that the United States is “not seeking dialogue” and has rejected an offer from Iran for stricter nuclear inspections in exchange for removing the sanctions on Iran. The Iranian proposal came from Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during his visit to New York earlier last month. Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that he recently offered to travel to Tehran and speak directly to the Iranian people. But Iran hasn’t accepted his offer. Iran in response said Pompeo’s offer was a passive move, in which nobody sees any honesty and seriousness.

Libya’s national oil company declared force majeure on Sharara crude oil loadings on Jul.31. The country's largest oil filed began shutting down late on Jul.30 after a valve on the pipeline linking it to an export terminal on the Mediterranean Sea was shut, The valve was shut by unidentified perpetrators. Sharara oil field produces around 290,000 bpd, which is nearly one third of Libya's crude output. It is a prime target that is frequently attacked and blocked by militias. Libyan oil revenues are expected to drop by as much as 17% in 2019 as a result of disruptions in production.

The U.S. could be viewing the situation in Venezuela as close to being resolved, as suggested by the extension of the U.S. sanctions waiver for Chevron to continue operating legally in Venezuela for three more months. The U.S. Department of the Treasury did extend on Friday the sanction waivers to Chevron and four oilfield services companies—Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford International—to continue to deal until October 25 with Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA, which is otherwise subject to strict U.S. sanctions. As per some forecasts, Venezuela could be pumping as little as below 500,000 bpd of crude oil next year amid the economic and political crisis. Venezuela’s crude oil production in June dropped by 16,000 bpd from May to stand at 734,000 bpd. To compare, Venezuela’s crude oil production in 2017 averaged 1.911 million bpd.

We expect bunker prices may drop today of minus 10-15 USD.