MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Sept 09

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated upward changes on Sep. 06

380 HSFO - USD/MT 377.14 (+13.74)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 421.278 (+13.77)
MGO - USD/MT 652.68 (+2.39)

Meantime, world oil indexes demonstrated irregular changes on Sept. 06 on the news, that OPEC producers raising their overall output in August, despite signs of faltering global demand.

Brent for November settlement increased by $0.59 to $61.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose by $0.22 to $56.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of 5.02 to WTI. Gasoil for September delivery decreased by 10.75.

Today indexes are rising as Saudi official said there would be no change in Saudi Arabia's OPEC policy.

United Arab Emirates energy minister saying OPEC and its allies are committed to balancing the crude market. There will be no shift in Saudi oil and OPEC policy. Prince Abdulaziz will work on strengthening cooperation among OPEC and non-OPEC. Saudi Arabia's king appointed his son, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, as energy minister on Sunday, replacing Khalid al-Falih and for the first time handing the portfolio to a member of the royal family. Prince Abdulaziz has been a longstanding member of the Saudi delegation to OPEC.

At the same time, oil indexes were under the pressure of the news that OPEC producers raised their overall output in August, despite signs of faltering global demand. News agencies Bloomberg and Reuters and price-reporting service Argus all calculated that OPEC’s combined output rose last month, by anything between an average of 80,000 barrels a day and 200,000 barrels a day. One source of over-production was Iraq, which pumped a new record-high average of 4.88 million barrels a day in August, well above its agreed ceiling under the so-called OPEC+ deal on output restraint. That forms fears of a new glut forming on world markets, given a steady stream of weaker-than-expected global data, especially from the manufacturing sector.
At the same time, Commerzbank had cut their Brent crude forecasts by $5 a barrel to an average of $60 through the end of 2020, while UBS said the worsening demand outlook would push it down as far $55.

Jerome Powell's said on Sept.06 in Zurich that he saw little chance of a recession helped send oil indexes higher.

News of a second straight weekly drop in U.S. crude stockpiles and scheduled resumption of U.S.-China trade talks in October also supported the market. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

The US oil and gas rig count fell again last week, decreasing by 6 for the week, but US oil companies are pumping oil at record rates. The total oil and gas rig count now stands at 898, or 150 down from this time last year. The total number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 4 reaching 738. The number of active gas rigs decreased by 2 to reach 160. Year-to-date, the oil rig count has fallen from 858 active rigs since the beginning of the year to 738, while gas rigs have fallen from 187 to 160 during that same time.
US weekly oil production is still near an all-time high despite the declining rig count, at 12.4 million bpd for week ending August 30.

We expect bunker prices to demonstrate irregular changes today: about 1-3 USD up for IFO, about 7-10 USD down for MGO.