The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated slight upward changes on Oct.8
380 HSFO - USD/MT 392.71 (+0.54)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 430.27 (+0.04)
MGO - USD/MT 661.50 (+3.23)
Meantime, world oil indexes also demonstrated downward changes on Oct.8. as tensions rose between China and the United States ahead of high-level trade talks.
Brent for December settlement decreased by $0.12 to $58.24 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell by $0.12 to $52.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.61 to WTI. Gasoil for October delivery decreased by $10.00.
Today indexes slight down as prospect of the United States and China striking a trade deal in talks this week is unlikely, that raise uncertainties for global economic growth and oil demand.
The Trump Administration was moving ahead with efforts to limit capital flows into China and the inclusion of more Chinese firms in a blacklist. Washington widened its trade blacklist to include some of China’s top artificial intelligence start-ups, punishing Beijing for its treatment of Muslim minorities and ratcheting up tensions ahead of trade talks in Washington this week. A South China Morning Post report that said China had toned down expectations ahead of high-level trade talks between the two countries that are to resume on Thursday, after being stalled since May. The report said the Chinese delegation could depart Washington a day earlier than scheduled. An increase in U.S. tariffs to 30% from 25% on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods is scheduled for Oct. 15. Prospects for progress dimmed after U.S. President Donald Trump said a quick trade deal was unlikely.
According to the American Petroleum Institute crude inventories rose by 4.1 million, with gasoline supplies down by 5.9 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 4. It is expected that the Energy Information Administration will report a build of 1.4 million barrels on its petroleum data today later.
Oil prices were also pressured by weak economic data after U.S. producer prices fell unexpectedly in September, weighed down by lower costs of goods and services, which could give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates again this month.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Oct.8 cut its 2020 world oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.30 million. The EIA also said U.S. crude production is expected to rise by 1.27 million bpd in 2019 to a record 12.26 million bpd, slightly above its previous forecast for a rise of 1.25 million. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the same time warned of a risk of complacency among countries. Without action to resolve trade conflicts and support growth, global economic deceleration could turn into “a more massive slowdown,” she said.
However, protests in OPEC members Iraq and Ecuador threatened to disrupt their oil output and supported prices. In Iraq, protests resumed overnight in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, though much of the country appeared quieter than it has been for a week. Potential attacks by Turkey on Kurdish forces in northeast Syria could take place close to the Iraqi border, leading to the crisis that puts pressures on Kurdistan’s economy. Turkey said it had completed preparations for a military operation in northeast Syria after the United States began pulling back troops.
Ecuador’s energy ministry said protests against austerity could reduce its oil output by 59,450 bpd.
We expect bunker prices to demonstrate slight downward changes today: 1-3 USD down for IFO, 7-10 USD down for MGO.