MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Oct 22

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated irregular changes on Oct.21

380 HSFO - USD/MT 352.42 (-8.60)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 394.73 (-9.35)
MGO - USD/MT 661.79 (+0.79)

Meantime, world oil indexes also demonstrated downward changes on Oct.21 amid Brexit news and global economic worries.

Brent for December settlement decreased by $0.46 to $58.96 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell by $0.47 to $53.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.65 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery declined by $7.25.

Today indexes rise supported by signs of progress in talks on resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Oct.22 said efforts to end a U.S. trade war with China were going well as negotiators from the two nations work settle a Phase 1 trade deal text for their leaders to sign next month when they meet at November's APEC summit. At the same time, the U.S. commerce secretary said an initial trade deal does not need to be finalized next month. That raises the risk of further prolonged negotiations and feed market anxiety about the prospects for a durable deal. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told that the administration’s target is still to finish phase one by the time the APEC meetings take place in Chile on Nov. 16 and 17. He added there are outstanding issues to resolve.

Retaliatory sanctions of $2.4 billion sought by China for U.S. non-compliance with a WTO ruling from an Obama-era tariffs case also raised concerns about the fragile trade negotiations between the two superpowers. At the WTO, a document published on Oct.21 showed that the United States did not fully comply with an Obama-era WTO ruling. That could open Washington to Chinese sanctions if it does not remove certain U.S. tariffs that break the rules.

The WTO news comes as U.S. China have been moving gingerly to resolve a trade war that has dragged on almost two years and resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars of tit-for-tat tariffs.

In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to lead Britain out of the European Union at the end of this month hit another roadblock when the speaker of the House of Commons rejected his attempt to hold a new vote of lawmakers on his Brexit deal. However there is remained hopeful Britain would avoid a disorderly exit from the European Union. Any British-EU agreement that avoids a no-deal Brexit should boost economic growth and oil demand.

On the supply side, Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, said on Oct.19 it did not meet its supply reduction commitment in September because of an increase in natural gas condensate output ahead of winter.

European refinery production in September fell 4% from the previous month and 4.2% year-on-year. Production hit 10.451 million barrels per day (bpd), with output declining across all refined products.

We expect bunker prices to decline today: 1-3 USD down for IFO, 5-7 USD down for MGO.