MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Jan 10

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated slight irregular changes on January 09:

380 HSFO: USD/MT – 387.79 (-3.39)
VLSFO: USD/MT – 668.00 (+2.00)
MGO: USD/MT – 710.60 (-4.36)

Meantime, world oil indexes continued to slight down amid decline of U.S. crude stocks and easing fears of an escalation in conflict between the United States and Iran.

Brent for March settlement decreased by $0.07 to $65.37 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February declined by $0.05 to $59.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.81 to WTI. Gasoil for January delivery lost $13.00.

Today morning oil indexes demonstrate downward evolution as the threat of war in the Middle East receded and the market switched attention to economic growth prospects and the rise in U.S. crude oil and product inventories.

Prices were hovering around where they stood before the Jan. 3 U.S. drone strike that killed a top Iranian general and prompted an Iranian rocket attack on Iraqi airbases hosting U.S. forces, sending crude to its highest in four months.

After Tehran launched its retaliatory missile attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq late on Jan.8 a Revolutionary Guards commander said Iran would take “harsher revenge soon”.

Two rockets fell inside Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign missions, but caused no casualties.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump had eased tensions by stepping back from further military action, depressing oil prices and diverting attention back to a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles last week.

Meanwhile, oil and gas ship owners are bracing to pay a price for U.S.-Iranian tensions in the form of higher insurance bills, which could add hundreds of thousands of dollars to shipping costs that would ultimately be passed on to fuel buyers, mostly in Asia.

According to the Energy Information Administration Crude oil stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels last week to 431.1 million barrels. It was expected a drop of 3.6 million barrels.

JPMorgan analysts maintained their forecast for Brent to average $64.50 a barrel this year.
Top oil producers led by Saudi Arabia have agreed to reduce output by as much as 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) through the first quarter of 2020.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan.09 said his administration will start negotiating the Phase 2 U.S.-China trade agreement soon but that he might wait to complete any agreement until after November's U.S. presidential election.

We expect bunker prices to decline today: 1-3 USD down for IFO, 10-13 USD down for MGO.