MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Jan 29

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs continued to decline on January 28:

380 HSFO: USD/MT – 372.55 (-5.59)
VLSFO: USD/MT – 591.00 (-8.00)
MGO: USD/MT – 634.83 (-9.99)

Meantime, world oil indexes rose on Jan.28 gaining support from talk that OPEC and its allies might tighten the market amid fears the coronavirus could weigh on oil demand.

Brent for March settlement increased by $0.19 to $59.51 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for March rose by $0.34 to $53.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.03 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery added $13.50.

Today morning oil indexes continue slight upward evolution on talk that OPEC could extend oil cuts and data showing a decline in U.S. stockpiles. The main driver that weights oil indexes is a virus in China. However, the output outages in Libya and OPEC comments calmed the market.

OPEC wants to extend oil production cuts until at least June from March, and may deepen the reductions should demand for oil in China be significantly reduced by the spread of the virus. As the oil price fell below that seen during a December meeting of the OPEC+, Saudi Arabia said that the group could respond to any changes in demand. Saudi and other OPEC producers, however, sought to downplay demand concerns resulting from the virus outbreak.

The remarks followed a statement on Jan.27 from Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, aimed at calming the market after crude dropped below $59/b amid fears of a wider economic impact of the virus. He said, the kingdom has the capability and flexibility needed to respond to any developments, by taking the necessary actions to support oil market stability, if the situation so requires.

The United States and other countries warned against travel to China as the coronavirus death toll rose to more than 100 and after the virus was detected in more than a dozen countries outside China. There are some concerns that travel advisories, other restrictions and any sizable impact on growth in China and elsewhere will dampen demand for crude and related products against a backdrop of plentiful supply.

China’s already weakening economy is set to take another hit with businesses across the country remaining shut for an extended public holiday and tourism grinding to a halt, as authorities struggle to contain the pneumonia like coronavirus that has spread across the nation.

In Libya the output is down by nearly 75% to just below 300,000 bpd amid the most extensive oil blockade for years. Some say, OPEC probably does not need to do anything as long as Libya continues to be shut.

According to the American Petroleum Institute, stockpiles of U.S. crude fell sharply last week by 4.3 million, compared with build of 1.6 million reported last week. The Energy Information Administration reports the official government numbers later today.

We expect bunker prices may increase today: 1-3 USD up for IFO, 10-13 USD up for MGO.