MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Feb 13

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) did not have firm trend and changed irregular on February 12:

380 HSFO - USD/MT 359.99 (+3.91)
VLSFO - USD/MT 540.00 (-3.00)
MGO - USD/MT 595.45 (+0.69)

Meantime, world oil indexes rose on Feb.12 as China reported its lowest daily number of new coronavirus cases since late January, stoking investor hopes that fuel demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer may begin to recover from the epidemic.

Brent for April settlement increased by $1.78 to $55.79 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for March rose by $1.23 to $51.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $4.62 to WTI. Gasoil for March delivery gained $13.75.

Today morning global oil indexes do not have firm trend so far and change irregular.

The growth rate of new coronavirus cases in China has slowed to the lowest since Jan. 30. Still, international experts remained cautious over forecasting when the outbreak might reach a peak. Travel restrictions to and from China and quarantines have cut fuel usage. The two biggest Chinese refiners have said they will reduce their processing by about 940,000 barrels per day (bpd) as a result of the consumption drop, or about 7% of their 2019 processing runs.

OPEC’s JTC recommended 600,000 bpd in cuts and an extension of the deal through the end of 2020. Russia has hesitated on supporting the proposal and an emergency meeting in February now looks unlikely, although many analysts still see a deal taking place in March.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its 2020 forecasts for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices and reduced its expectations for U.S. crude-oil production, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report released Tuesday. The EIA pegged its 2020 WTI oil price forecast at $55.71 a barrel, down 6% from its previous view. It also cut its Brent crude price forecast by 5.5% to $61.25 for 2020. The agency expects U.S. crude production of 13.2 million barrels a day this year, down 0.8% from the previous view, with its forecast for 2021 output down 1.1% at 13.56 million barrels a day. For 2020, total world output of crude oil and liquid fuels are forecast at 101.97 million barrels a day, while total consumption is seen at 101.74 million barrels a day.

Rystad Energy in turn is also heavily revising its annual global oil demand growth forecast down by 25% to 820,000 barrels a day (b/d) in 2020 – as the coronavirus epidemic has triggered restrictions in China’s public transport and air travel. It was added that – in its worst case scenario – the coronavirus’ impact on demand growth could be even wider, slashing growth to as low as 650,000 b/d year on year (y/y). Current assessment implies that the impact of coronavirus will persist throughout all of February and March and will then gradually subside towards June 2020.

Libya’s oil production is down to less than 200,000 bpd, and the uncertainty surrounding the outage create complications for OPEC+ as it looks to cut deeper. Libya’s civil war entered a dangerous new phase a few weeks ago when the Libyan National Army (LNA) and associated militias blockaded oil export terminals as a way of applying pressure on the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. The standoff continues, and Libya’s output has plunged to around 180,000 bpd. The National Oil Company warned in January that production would ultimately fall to zero because storage would fill up and oil fields would need to be idled. The news is supporting fuel prices at the moment.

U.S. natural gas prices fell below $1.80/MMBtu on Feb.10, dragging down a broad range of gas-focused shale drillers. Gas prices are at a four-year low. Natural-gas prices took heavy losses as mild weather outlooks continue to pressure prices lower.  But the warm weather is a global phenomenon. As per some forecasts, mild temperatures probably hit oil demand by about 800,000 bpd in January.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. The report came a day after the American Petroleum Institute estimated an inventory build of 6 million barrels. Analysts had expected a build of 2.93 million barrels for the period, after the EIA reported an inventory increase of 3.4 million barrels for the prior week.

We expect bunker prices may rise today in a range of plus 7-13 USD.