MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Apr 08

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs decreased on April 07:

380 HSFO: USD/MT 252.51 (-3.04)
VLSFO: USD/MT 304.00 (-3.00)
MGO: USD/MT 392.80 (-2.44)

Meantime, world oil indexes demonstrated irregular changes on Apr. 07 amid concerns, that any production cuts will be enough to rescue a market facing a potential demand loss of 20 million to 30 million barrels per day due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Brent for June settlement decreased by $1.18 to $31.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for May fell by $2.45 to $23.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $8.24 to WTI. Gasoil for April delivery added $4.25.

Today morning oil indexes rise hopes that a meeting between OPEC members and allied producers on Apr.09 will trigger output cuts to shore up prices.

Oil indexes were supported on initial optimism that OPEC+-G20 meetings later this week will take a total of 10 million bpd from the market. That would be the steepest coordinated production cuts in oil’s history and could include unprecedented participation from Brazil and Canada.

Russia would like to cut a nominal 0.5-1 million bpd according to reports. At the same time, the U.S. says its production has already fallen by about 2 million bpd over the past month. President Donald Trump said OPEC had not pressed him at all in terms of production cuts. The Saudis haven’t officially committed to any volume of cuts yet. Some say, that the global coordinated production cuts that are really needed may be too large for the producers to accept; perhaps twice as large as the numbers being discussed.

Russia confirmed its participation in the meeting of leading oil producers set for April 9, joining Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC members. That's set to be followed on Apr.10 by a meeting of G20 energy ministers, which will include representatives of two other large producers outside the OPEC+ bloc, Canada and Brazil, in addition to the U.S.

The official data released by the Energy Information Administration on Apr.07 forecasts, that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2020 from the current weekly estimate 13 million bpd.

Much will also depend on what role the U.S. plays in any potential production cuts. The OPEC+ group has been curtailing production in recent years while U.S. producers have increased their own output, resulting in the U.S. becoming the world's largest crude producer.

According to the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. oil inventories jumped again last week by 11.9 million barrels this time. The strong rise is not surprising given the demand destruction seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. The Energy Information Administration will report official government figures tomorrow, with analysts looking for a rise of about 9.3 million barrels in crude inventories.

We expect bunker prices to change irregularly today: 3-5 USD down for IFO, 2-4 USD up for MGO.