MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Nov 09

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated slight irregular changes on November 06:

380 HSFO: USD/MT 295.68 (-0.82)
VLSFO: USD/MT 344.00 (-1.00)
MGO: USD/MT 40.65 (+0.76)

Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Nov.06 as rising global coronavirus cases stoked fears about lackluster demand and due to uncertainty amid vote counting in the U.S. presidential election.

Brent for January settlement decreased by $1.48 to $41.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for December fell by $1.65 to $37.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $2.31 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery lost $4.25.

Today oil indexes increase as the outcome of the U.S. election became clear. However, the worsening COVID-19 pandemic and oversupply concerns are still weighting the market.

Indexes are supported by the results of the U.S. election, where the Democrats won the presidency but failed to also take control of the Senate from the Republicans. This gives neither party sufficient power to make radical changes to existing policy and is seen as a moderating influence. Some say, that the outcome is ideal from a market point of view. Neither party controls the Congress, so both trade wars and higher taxes are largely off the agenda.

President-elect Joe Biden is also regarded as more likely to pursue beneficial federal policies in terms of COVID-19 public health and relief packages, giving some optimism about the speed of a recovery from the still-growing coronavirus epidemic. However, worries over demand recovery remain as the number of global COVID-19 cases exceeded 50 million as of Nov. 9, according to Johns Hopkins University.

U.S. coronavirus cases also surged by over 120,000 on Nov.5, the second consecutive daily record rise as the outbreak spreads in every region. Italy recorded its highest daily number of COVID-19 infections on Nov.05. France registered a record 60,486 new confirmed cases on Friday, after posting a record 58,046 on Thursday.

The United States gained 638,000 jobs in October, more than forecast by economists but less than September’s growth, the government’s monthly jobs data showed on Friday. The economy lost more than 21 million jobs for all of March and April, at the height of lockdowns forced by the COVID-19. It posted a strong rebound of 2.5 million jobs in May and 4.8 million in June. Job gains have slowed since, with 1.8 million in July, some 1.5 million in August and 672,000 in September.

Providing some support, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, could delay bringing back 2 million barrels per day of supply in January, given weaker demand after new lockdowns.

Libya’s oil production has now recovered from a months-long embargo to reach 1 million barrels per day, however, the Libyan National Oil Company has stated that it is unlikely to continue production at this level due to obstruction from unnamed entities.


U.S. energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for an eighth week in a row for the first time since June 2018 as producers keep returning to the wellpad after crude prices held around $40 a barrel from mid June-late October. According to Baker Hughes Co, the oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by 4 to 300 in the week to Nov. 6, the highest since May. U.S. oil rigs rose by five to 226 last week, their highest since May, while gas rigs fell by 1 to 71.

We expect bunker prices may decline today: 7-10 USD down for IFO and 4-6 USD down for MGO.