Sber CIB forecast: RUB65-70 / USD at the end of 2022
Sber CIB does not agree with the forecasts of international brokers, who expect oil prices to surge to $150 per barrel. Sber CIB assumes that peak prices in the medium term will be reached this summer and will rise to $100 per barrel. Mikhail Sheibe, an analyst at Sberbank CIB, stated this at the Current State and Prospects for the Development of the Russian Market of Bunkering Services Conference.
Answering a question from PortNews IAA, he announced Sberbank's currency forecast: RUB65-70 / USD at the end of 2022, which will be affected by the gradual recovery in import flows.
“Russian production is strengthening in this current difficult times. A 30-percent discounts on Russian raw materials do wonders, allowing the country to maintain the level of production at 10.5-10.7 million barrels a day (from the level of 11 million barrels / day in February-March 2022 - Ed. note). We do not see a strong potential for a collapse in Russian production, just as we do not see a surge in demand, which will not stagnate for now. By the end of the year, we expect a price per barrel at $100. In the long term, prices will continue to be high. In 2023-2024, prices will not drop below $75-80 per barrel,” the expert was quoted as saying, repeating Sberbank’s forecast that by the end of the year RUB is expected to weaken towards 65-70 rubles per USD.
According to him, the level of world reserves is a key factor in crude oil prices. Stocks in 2020-2021 were declining, with oil product market plunging into a state of deficit, he noted.
“Both oil reserves and oil product stocks are at multi-year minimum levels. In 2013-2014, global demand was 90 million barrels per day, and now it is 100 million barrels per day. In recent months, a shortage of supply has been observed both in the oil market and in the markets of petroleum products due to a lack of refining capacity. The remaining free capacity of the refinery is located in China,” the Sber CIB specialist said.
The key event of the second half of 2022 will be the visit of the US President to Saudi Arabia in July, which may determine the further actions of OPEC + and the planned deal in August.