We have the opportunity to go there and invest, he says
The share of crude oil in Russia's GDP will fall, the expert believes.
“According to our estimates, there will be a reduction in crude oil exports, then an increase, but I don’t think it will be serious: about 15-20 million tonnes by 2030,” the expert noted. “There has been a decline in oil products already. Then there will be a significant drop in exports,” says Andrei Klepach.
He also added that “there is a huge gap between oil production and export in Russia, on the one hand, and petrochemicals, on the other. The discrepancy in production volumes is approximately 20 times.”
Speaking about the export crude oil and oil products transportation from the point of view of swithing logistics to the South and East, Andrei Klepach noted that the issue is not only the number of tankers, but also the creation of a new logistics infrastructure.
“This is not just a question of how many more tankers to get, when the old ones will drop out and new ones will need to be found somewhere. It is necessary to build up new logistics, create dedicated hubs for joint partnerships with Indian, Indonesian, and Chinese companies. Because you can sell there normally, and we have the opportunity to go there and invest. It is necessary to build a fundamentally new logistics scheme, perhaps in the South, and not in the East,” said the expert. “Because the Northern Sea Route, its eastern direction, is still more of a task for 2030, although work needs to be done there too,” he added.
PortNews has reported earlier that maritime exports of crude oil from Russia in the last week of September 2023 rose to its high in three months. According to Bloomberg, about 3.72 million barrels of crude oil per day were shipped from Russian ports from September 25 to October 1, up 24% from the previous seven days.