Amidst growing concerns over the scarcity of oil tankers, the industry faces a critical juncture as recent Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea prompt widespread trade diversions, according to Bloomberg. The current year sees an unprecedented low in the addition of new supertankers, with only two expected to join the global fleet, marking the smallest increase in nearly 40 years and a drastic 90% decline from the millennium's yearly average. This shortage arrives at a time when avoidance of the southern Red Sea has become increasingly common, leading to significant spikes in shipping rates and extended voyage durations.
The scarcity of new tankers is compounded by a shift in global oil flows, prompting longer delivery times for European shipments that once traversed shorter distances within the region. Consequently, the efficiency of the global oil tanker fleet is faltering, as ships are rerouted around southern Africa instead of passing through the strategic Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor.
The industry's current predicament can be traced back to a combination of factors, including last year's production cuts by OPEC and its allies, as well as broader energy transition movements aiming to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. However, the situation has starkly shifted with the avoidance of the Red Sea region following military interventions by US and UK forces in Yemen, which, despite their efforts, have not quelled Houthi activity, leading many top tanker owners to steer clear of the area.
But equity analysts are mostly bullish about tanker owners. Frontline Plc, the world’s largest listed pureplay tanker owner, has 12 buy recommendations from the 16 companies that cover it. International Seaways Inc., another of the top 10, has 11 buy recommendations from its 11 analysts.
