Global container port volume is projected to fall by 1% as a direct consequence of current U.S. trade policies, maritime consultancy Drewry stated on Thursday.
This marks the third time since Drewry began collecting data in 1979 that global container shipping demand is expected to decrease.
Previous drops occurred in 2009 during the global financial crisis (-8.4%) and in 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (-0.9%).
According to Drewry, the U.S. administration's current trade policy framework includes a blanket tariff of 10% on goods from most nations, alongside significantly higher import duties of 145% on products from China.
These measures have been met with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by China and other affected countries.
In a slide presentation, Drewry indicated that "Assuming that 2/3 of current tariffs remain in place, U.S. imports from China could fall by 40%."
China is a major source of U.S. imports across consumer goods, industrial products, and furniture sectors. However, the consultancy also noted that a potential relocation of manufacturing from China to countries facing substantially lower tariffs could partially offset this decline in shipping demand.
Drewry projected that U.S. imports from these alternative countries could see an increase of up to 15%.
The forecast aligns with concerns raised by other industry bodies. The National Retail Federation (NRF), whose membership includes major retailers like Walmart and Target, predicted earlier this month that U.S. containerized import cargo volume could drop by at least 20% year-over-year in the latter half of 2025 as companies delay orders from China. The NRF also warned that import volumes at major U.S. ports, such as the Port of Los Angeles, could begin to decrease as early as May.
Economists have also cautioned that the U.S. trade policies could elevate the risk of a recession in the United States, potentially impacting global economic output and subsequently affecting shipping volumes worldwide.
The International Monetary Fund recently stated that the steep U.S. tariffs are expected to slow worldwide economic activity in the coming months.
Drewry is a leading international provider of research and consulting services for the maritime and shipping industry. Founded in 1979, the London-based firm offers a wide range of services including market research and analysis, consulting, and supply chain advisory to clients across the global shipping value chain, including shipowners, operators, ports, terminals, financial institutions, and cargo owners.