According to forecast by DnB NOR Markets, supertanker rental income may decrease next year as ships make shorter voyages and the fleet swells, Hellenic Shipping News reports.
Very large crude carriers will likely make $35,000 a day in 2011, versus $39,625 this year, Oslo-based analysts Henrik With and Glenn Lodden estimated in an e-mailed report today on Frontline Ltd., the largest operator. Earnings for smaller suezmax vessels will drop to $25,000 from $25,625, they said.
The crude-oil transportation fleet will expand by 7 percent next year, while new Chinese refineries will import a greater proportion of cargoes from the Middle East, lowering their reliance on West African supplies, the analysts said. Deliveries over shorter distances increase the number of tankers available for hire.
Still, there will be no “significant impact” on global transportation distances as China’s reduced reliance on West Africa is “mitigated” by more shipments to Asia from Latin America, the analysts said. At the same time, demand from Western Hemisphere refineries will stay “subdued.”
Rental income from shipping Saudi Arabian crude oil to Japan, the route that’s used to settle freight derivatives, fell 13 percent to $36,781 a day yesterday, according to the London- based Baltic Exchange. It surged more than 13-fold between Oct. 21 and Nov. 2 as vessel demand accelerated.
Modern refineries can process a higher proportion of so- called sour, heavy crudes found in the Persian Gulf, whereas older plants are better able to handle the light, sweet grades available from West Africa. Sweet crude contains less sulfur than sour.
The distance from Cabinda in Angola, site of the Malango oil terminal, to Qingdao in China is 9,629 nautical miles (11,080 miles), according to the searates.com website. That compares with 6,407 miles for the voyage from Jubail in Saudi Arabia, located near the Ras Tanura oil port.