The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum yesterday, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) gaining a further 0.64% to end the session to 2,213 points, still way off its year-highs of more than 4,200 points. But, the negative news –if one could assume them as such – was the slight decline of the capesize segment, which lost 1.50% yesterday. On the upside was the Panamaxes strong gains of 3.88%, which comes to show that last week’s downfall was a bit too much.
According to Fearnley’s latest weekly report, there is indeed a little more positive sentiment in the Panamax market his week in both hemishperes, as some new enquiries in the Atlantic pushed rates a tick up. “Pacific had a more slow beginning but increased somewhat from midweek, 3/5 months period redel ww fixed at usd 20k. Transatlantic r/v arnd 17-18k
level while Pacific 16.5k-17k. Fronthaul pending around usd 25-26k while backhaul remain poor if finding cargoes at all at 10k level. Might be we face an end of year effect in the market with charterers selling out their stocks, which can be positive on short term, while the long picture is more uncertain“ said the shipbroker.
As for the capesize sector it stated that it’s a very quiet week, with mostly repeat business, rate wise, until yesterday when levels were sliding. “The absence of Vale on the front haul leg has effectively prompted the slide. There have been some tight Atlantic positions where vessels have commanded premiums but, this has been for North Atlantic loading and very prompt positions. On the period side, there has been some activity with a good unit fixed at usd 30k daily. Spot coal has also been concluded but the volumes have not been enough to move the market. All in all a colorless week” concluded Fearnley’s.
Meanwhile, in a separate analysis released earlied in the week, Commodore Research & Consultancy mentioned that the last five weeks of declining Chinese steel stockpiles have shown that steel demand remains firm. “Chinese crude steel output reached a 2010 low of 47.95 million tons in September, a decline of 3.69mt (-7%) from 51.64mt produced in August. Prior to September’s output, crude steel production had been averaging 53.56mt per month. Steel output rebounded in October and totaled 50.30mt – but electricity restrictions on
steel mills remain in place and continue to limit production. Chinese steel stockpiles continue to be destocked to make up for restricted output however. Just five weeks ago, Chinese flat and construction steel stockpiles totaled about 15.5 million tons. Since that time, however, stockpiles have decreased by 1.9mt (-12%) as end users have continued to consume a moderate amount of the steel for construction purposes The 13.6mt of flat and construction steel currently stockpiled in China is the lowest level of construction steel stockpiled in China since January. We expect Chinese crude steel production will remain at similar levels for the remainder of the year and stockpiles will likely be destocked a bit more. For now, steel demand in China remains firm” said Commodore.
The other major issue affecting the state of the dry bulk freight market is India’s Karnataka iron ore export ban, which was extended late last week by court order for a period of another six months. The ban has been in place since late July and came as a result of illegal mining and railing. “The ban has resulted in Chinese ore buyers importing more of their ore from Australia and Brazil. These cargoes are primarily shipped on capesize vessels; ore from India is primarily shipped on panamax and supramax vessels. With approximately 25% of India’s iron ore mined in Karnataka, the Karnataka iron ore export has resulted in a significant decline in Indian ore exports. Indian iron ore exports to China (almost all of India’s exported ore goes to China) totaled about 4.75 million tons in September, the lowest amount since November 2008. Indian iron ore exports have decreased steadily since the ban was put in place. Going forward, the export ban will continue to cause China to source a large amount of its iron ore from Australia and Brazil” said Commodore.
According to Fearnley’s latest weekly report, there is indeed a little more positive sentiment in the Panamax market his week in both hemishperes, as some new enquiries in the Atlantic pushed rates a tick up. “Pacific had a more slow beginning but increased somewhat from midweek, 3/5 months period redel ww fixed at usd 20k. Transatlantic r/v arnd 17-18k
level while Pacific 16.5k-17k. Fronthaul pending around usd 25-26k while backhaul remain poor if finding cargoes at all at 10k level. Might be we face an end of year effect in the market with charterers selling out their stocks, which can be positive on short term, while the long picture is more uncertain“ said the shipbroker.
As for the capesize sector it stated that it’s a very quiet week, with mostly repeat business, rate wise, until yesterday when levels were sliding. “The absence of Vale on the front haul leg has effectively prompted the slide. There have been some tight Atlantic positions where vessels have commanded premiums but, this has been for North Atlantic loading and very prompt positions. On the period side, there has been some activity with a good unit fixed at usd 30k daily. Spot coal has also been concluded but the volumes have not been enough to move the market. All in all a colorless week” concluded Fearnley’s.
Meanwhile, in a separate analysis released earlied in the week, Commodore Research & Consultancy mentioned that the last five weeks of declining Chinese steel stockpiles have shown that steel demand remains firm. “Chinese crude steel output reached a 2010 low of 47.95 million tons in September, a decline of 3.69mt (-7%) from 51.64mt produced in August. Prior to September’s output, crude steel production had been averaging 53.56mt per month. Steel output rebounded in October and totaled 50.30mt – but electricity restrictions on
steel mills remain in place and continue to limit production. Chinese steel stockpiles continue to be destocked to make up for restricted output however. Just five weeks ago, Chinese flat and construction steel stockpiles totaled about 15.5 million tons. Since that time, however, stockpiles have decreased by 1.9mt (-12%) as end users have continued to consume a moderate amount of the steel for construction purposes The 13.6mt of flat and construction steel currently stockpiled in China is the lowest level of construction steel stockpiled in China since January. We expect Chinese crude steel production will remain at similar levels for the remainder of the year and stockpiles will likely be destocked a bit more. For now, steel demand in China remains firm” said Commodore.
The other major issue affecting the state of the dry bulk freight market is India’s Karnataka iron ore export ban, which was extended late last week by court order for a period of another six months. The ban has been in place since late July and came as a result of illegal mining and railing. “The ban has resulted in Chinese ore buyers importing more of their ore from Australia and Brazil. These cargoes are primarily shipped on capesize vessels; ore from India is primarily shipped on panamax and supramax vessels. With approximately 25% of India’s iron ore mined in Karnataka, the Karnataka iron ore export has resulted in a significant decline in Indian ore exports. Indian iron ore exports to China (almost all of India’s exported ore goes to China) totaled about 4.75 million tons in September, the lowest amount since November 2008. Indian iron ore exports have decreased steadily since the ban was put in place. Going forward, the export ban will continue to cause China to source a large amount of its iron ore from Australia and Brazil” said Commodore.