Ports in emerging economies led by China will outshine those in European and American nations in the global container throughput ranking this year despite a general slowdown in growth, according to experts from the Centre for Forecasting Sciences with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Cargonews Asia reports. High economic growth in China, India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East is stimulating the increase in container throughput at ports from China to South Korea, and from Dubai to Port Klang, they said.
China will likely prevail again in the year-end standing of top container ports, said Huang Anqiang, a senior member of a specialised economics team working for the centre. He expects 10 of China's container ports, including Hong Kong and Kaohsiung, to be in the world top 20 league this year, one more than in 2010.
The forecast was based on current performances of the ports and economies and a comprehensive but flexible module for prediction developed with TEI@I methodology.
"The transfer of the world manufacturing centre and slow economic growth in advanced economies will push down their ports down the ranking of top 20 global ports," Huang said. Most in the top 10 list will not be from advanced economies in 2011. This is in sharp contrast to 2000 when nine out of the top 10 were from developed countries, Huang said.
Shanghai is expected to lead the ranking again while Ningbo-Zhoushan, Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Busan of South Korea and Tanjung Pelepas of Malaysia are expected to continue their double-digit growth in the second half of the year.
Figures released from China's Ministry of Transport is in line with the forecasts. In the first half of the year, container growth among China's major ports increased 12.9 percent over the same period last year, with the highest growth seen in river ports, which showcased the potential of internal trade. Shanghai led the group with 15.3 million TEUs. The average growth in throughput of the top 20 ports in 2011 will decrease significantly to 8.5 to 10.3 percent from 15.2 percent in 2010.
The slow economic recovery and sovereign debt problems are casting long shadows on global trade, Huang said. Although some emerging markets, such as China, will still maintain its double-digit growth in foreign trade, much of the fast growth in port volumes would be seen in bulk cargo, such as raw materials.
The world economy, although showing growth in 2011, still confronts huge unforeseen events, Huang said.
The US economic recovery has been hampered by its huge deficit and unemployment problems and is unlikely to drive up container growth while European sovereign debts have led to spending cuts and affected not only exports but also imports from Asian manufacturers. The introduction of larger fleets by major ocean carriers also adds to the pressure on shipping profits, said the centre.
The global container shipping industry faces a number of uncertainties, said Xu Lizhi, another analyst at the centre. He pointed out various scenarios that have affected the industry.
One of the major uncertainties is the rising price of crude oil, which has trimmed the profits of ocean carriers. The prices of bulk commodities are also hovering at high rates, leaving more cargo space unoccupied. More rigid requirements throughout the world for clean energy and emission control are also posing more challenges to carriers.
The Japanese earthquake and tsunami has sharply reduced electronic exports to China and the ensuing nuclear disaster has affected trade in aquatic products, Xu said. The growth in demand for building materials and rescue materials could cushion the side effects but not much, he added.
Huang said: "We believe the global container volume in 2011 will see further but slower growth compared with 2010."
The centre gave a breakdown of how different ports will fare this year in the top 20 container ranking.
In Europe, Rotterdam will struggle to keep its 10th place in global ranking that it held last year, the centre said. High terminal efficiency and well-founded links with European nations have enhanced its role as a transhipment hub, and massive expansion plans have given the industry high hopes for its future. But this year, the sovereign debts problems of European nations and appreciation of the yuan against the euro will dampen foreign trade and keep Rotterdam's growth in a range of 5.8-7.7 percent for the whole year and its throughput at around 12 million TEUs.
The Port of Antwerp in Belgium is banking on its container growth in trade with China. Compared with 16 percent growth in container throughput in 2010, this year it's volume will retreat to about five to 6.7 percent, but it will manage to hold onto its 14th place in the global ranking, according to the centre.
At the Port of Hamburg, favourable policies adopted by the port authority and a strong German industrial recovery could further encourage growth at its terminals of 8.9 to 10.8 percent for the whole year, ranking it just behind Antwerp.
Three US ports were among the top 20 container ports last year. The West Coast Port of Los Angeles has regained its growth momentum since 2010 after three years of declines and will claim a place behind Hamburg, despite complaints about empty boxes bound back to Asia. The Port of Long Beach will also consolidate its 18th position in the top 20 ranking.
The situation at New York/New Jersey Port could be different. Advanced technology and equipment at the ports helped them recover in 2010 since the pre-financial crisis level and it achieved a high growth of 12 percent in the first quarter of this year, but further growth this year has been hampered by unsteady US consumption and production, Xu said. For the whole year it could increase its volume by 5.9 to 7.2 percent, raising its total throughput to as high as 5.7 million TEUs. But that fast growth will not enable it to stay in the top 20 ranking ahead of Dalian, which came in at 21 in the rankings last year.
After Dalian listed its shares its shares at the Shanghai Stock Exchange at the end of 2010, the port, in the northern part of the Bohai Bay Rim, has used the capital raised to attract hinterland cargo sources and boost outbound container routes. Its regular ocean liners to the Mediterranean have given it new vigour and boosted its throughput with impressive double-digit growth. Its annual growth this year is expected to be 13 to 15 percent and its throughput will exceed 5.9 million TEUs.
Apart from China, ports in Southeast Asia and the Middle East are picking up speed thanks to faster-growing regional economies and their locations on trunk shipping lines.
Singapore, which was upstaged by Shanghai from the top position by a small margin last year, has continued its slow growth since the latter half of 2010. However, its ideal location, free port policy and increasing trade with Southeast Asian nations may shore up its volumes in the rest of 2011. The city state's container volume for 2011 could exceed 29 million TEUs again but it will fall slightly short of the top mark expected to be achieved by Shanghai.
Dubai Port, which recorded an admirable profit of US$450 million last year, has turned into a new transhipment hub with its efficient port operations and the robust needs of various Arabian countries. But it has been affected by the political instability in the region and its high growth seen in previous years will slow down to about 3.1 to 4.8 percent this year. It will, however, retain its 9th place in the global rankings.
Malaysia's Port Klang is turning its attention to container trade related to China and India, two of the world's strongest growing economies. The strategy has paid off and it expects to report 8.8 to 10.7 percent throughput growth for 2011. The Port of Tanjung Pelepas has tapped its potential for internal as well as international trade to maintain a higher growth of at least 13.7 percent, which could place it 17th in the global rankings
Top 20 container ports
in 2011 (forecast)
Rank Name
1 Shanghai
2 Singapore
3 Hong Kong
4 Shenzhen
5 Busan
6 Ningbo-Zhoushan
7 Qingdao
8 Guangzhou
9 Dubai
10 Rotterdam
11 Tianjin
12 Kaohsiung
13 Port Klang
14 Antwerp
15 Hamburg
16 Los Angeles
17 Tanjung Pelepas
18 Long Beach
19 Xiamen
20 Dalian
China will likely prevail again in the year-end standing of top container ports, said Huang Anqiang, a senior member of a specialised economics team working for the centre. He expects 10 of China's container ports, including Hong Kong and Kaohsiung, to be in the world top 20 league this year, one more than in 2010.
The forecast was based on current performances of the ports and economies and a comprehensive but flexible module for prediction developed with TEI@I methodology.
"The transfer of the world manufacturing centre and slow economic growth in advanced economies will push down their ports down the ranking of top 20 global ports," Huang said. Most in the top 10 list will not be from advanced economies in 2011. This is in sharp contrast to 2000 when nine out of the top 10 were from developed countries, Huang said.
Shanghai is expected to lead the ranking again while Ningbo-Zhoushan, Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Busan of South Korea and Tanjung Pelepas of Malaysia are expected to continue their double-digit growth in the second half of the year.
Figures released from China's Ministry of Transport is in line with the forecasts. In the first half of the year, container growth among China's major ports increased 12.9 percent over the same period last year, with the highest growth seen in river ports, which showcased the potential of internal trade. Shanghai led the group with 15.3 million TEUs. The average growth in throughput of the top 20 ports in 2011 will decrease significantly to 8.5 to 10.3 percent from 15.2 percent in 2010.
The slow economic recovery and sovereign debt problems are casting long shadows on global trade, Huang said. Although some emerging markets, such as China, will still maintain its double-digit growth in foreign trade, much of the fast growth in port volumes would be seen in bulk cargo, such as raw materials.
The world economy, although showing growth in 2011, still confronts huge unforeseen events, Huang said.
The US economic recovery has been hampered by its huge deficit and unemployment problems and is unlikely to drive up container growth while European sovereign debts have led to spending cuts and affected not only exports but also imports from Asian manufacturers. The introduction of larger fleets by major ocean carriers also adds to the pressure on shipping profits, said the centre.
The global container shipping industry faces a number of uncertainties, said Xu Lizhi, another analyst at the centre. He pointed out various scenarios that have affected the industry.
One of the major uncertainties is the rising price of crude oil, which has trimmed the profits of ocean carriers. The prices of bulk commodities are also hovering at high rates, leaving more cargo space unoccupied. More rigid requirements throughout the world for clean energy and emission control are also posing more challenges to carriers.
The Japanese earthquake and tsunami has sharply reduced electronic exports to China and the ensuing nuclear disaster has affected trade in aquatic products, Xu said. The growth in demand for building materials and rescue materials could cushion the side effects but not much, he added.
Huang said: "We believe the global container volume in 2011 will see further but slower growth compared with 2010."
The centre gave a breakdown of how different ports will fare this year in the top 20 container ranking.
In Europe, Rotterdam will struggle to keep its 10th place in global ranking that it held last year, the centre said. High terminal efficiency and well-founded links with European nations have enhanced its role as a transhipment hub, and massive expansion plans have given the industry high hopes for its future. But this year, the sovereign debts problems of European nations and appreciation of the yuan against the euro will dampen foreign trade and keep Rotterdam's growth in a range of 5.8-7.7 percent for the whole year and its throughput at around 12 million TEUs.
The Port of Antwerp in Belgium is banking on its container growth in trade with China. Compared with 16 percent growth in container throughput in 2010, this year it's volume will retreat to about five to 6.7 percent, but it will manage to hold onto its 14th place in the global ranking, according to the centre.
At the Port of Hamburg, favourable policies adopted by the port authority and a strong German industrial recovery could further encourage growth at its terminals of 8.9 to 10.8 percent for the whole year, ranking it just behind Antwerp.
Three US ports were among the top 20 container ports last year. The West Coast Port of Los Angeles has regained its growth momentum since 2010 after three years of declines and will claim a place behind Hamburg, despite complaints about empty boxes bound back to Asia. The Port of Long Beach will also consolidate its 18th position in the top 20 ranking.
The situation at New York/New Jersey Port could be different. Advanced technology and equipment at the ports helped them recover in 2010 since the pre-financial crisis level and it achieved a high growth of 12 percent in the first quarter of this year, but further growth this year has been hampered by unsteady US consumption and production, Xu said. For the whole year it could increase its volume by 5.9 to 7.2 percent, raising its total throughput to as high as 5.7 million TEUs. But that fast growth will not enable it to stay in the top 20 ranking ahead of Dalian, which came in at 21 in the rankings last year.
After Dalian listed its shares its shares at the Shanghai Stock Exchange at the end of 2010, the port, in the northern part of the Bohai Bay Rim, has used the capital raised to attract hinterland cargo sources and boost outbound container routes. Its regular ocean liners to the Mediterranean have given it new vigour and boosted its throughput with impressive double-digit growth. Its annual growth this year is expected to be 13 to 15 percent and its throughput will exceed 5.9 million TEUs.
Apart from China, ports in Southeast Asia and the Middle East are picking up speed thanks to faster-growing regional economies and their locations on trunk shipping lines.
Singapore, which was upstaged by Shanghai from the top position by a small margin last year, has continued its slow growth since the latter half of 2010. However, its ideal location, free port policy and increasing trade with Southeast Asian nations may shore up its volumes in the rest of 2011. The city state's container volume for 2011 could exceed 29 million TEUs again but it will fall slightly short of the top mark expected to be achieved by Shanghai.
Dubai Port, which recorded an admirable profit of US$450 million last year, has turned into a new transhipment hub with its efficient port operations and the robust needs of various Arabian countries. But it has been affected by the political instability in the region and its high growth seen in previous years will slow down to about 3.1 to 4.8 percent this year. It will, however, retain its 9th place in the global rankings.
Malaysia's Port Klang is turning its attention to container trade related to China and India, two of the world's strongest growing economies. The strategy has paid off and it expects to report 8.8 to 10.7 percent throughput growth for 2011. The Port of Tanjung Pelepas has tapped its potential for internal as well as international trade to maintain a higher growth of at least 13.7 percent, which could place it 17th in the global rankings
Top 20 container ports
in 2011 (forecast)
Rank Name
1 Shanghai
2 Singapore
3 Hong Kong
4 Shenzhen
5 Busan
6 Ningbo-Zhoushan
7 Qingdao
8 Guangzhou
9 Dubai
10 Rotterdam
11 Tianjin
12 Kaohsiung
13 Port Klang
14 Antwerp
15 Hamburg
16 Los Angeles
17 Tanjung Pelepas
18 Long Beach
19 Xiamen
20 Dalian