Bunker Review W.08, 2013
The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
U.S. shale boom deepened a glut at Cushing, Oklahoma, America’s biggest storage hub and the delivery point for the New York contract. Operational snags on Seaway line, which carries crude oil from Cushing to the Gulf Coast refining region, had restricted flows, allowing inventories to build up and pressure futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange. As per API data released on Feb.20, crude supplies at Cushing increased 546,000 barrels to 50.8 million. So the expansion of the Seaway pipeline from 180,000 barrels a day last month to average 295,000 barrels a day from February to May may have some potential to relieve the pressure on oil futures.
In Asia, the economic outlook in Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer, is brightening. The country's expansive policies, which have driven down the yen, escaped direct criticism in a G20 meeting, and this week Japanese shares rallied and the yen continued to fall.
Disappointing euro zone data revived concerns about the troubled region. The European Central Bank (ECB) described the economic outlook of the euro zone as weak in the near term. The ECB forecasts the region's economy will shrink 0.3% in 2013. Meanwhile political developments in two of the region's struggling economies have also heightened investor concerns. In Spain, charges of bribery have put pressure on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to resign. Political uncertainty in Italy could also add to woes in the eurozone and raise questions about oil demand. Italy is the eurozone’s third-biggest economy and if election results at the weekend threaten its economic reforms, that could darken the outlook for a region that is already in a deeper than forecast recession.
Saudi Arabia's move to cut output sharply by about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the last two months of 2012 had helped tighten supply and supported oil prices. The situation has changed recently when Saudi Arabia stated it expects to raise its output in the second quarter to satisfy higher demand from China and drive economic recovery elsewhere, although the exact rise in volume was still unclear.
Geo-political tensions added to the support. Talks between Iran and the United Nations appear to have failed, as its inspectors returned last week from Teheran with no deal on reviving a nuclear investigation, no date for a new meeting and no signal of hope for big power diplomacy aimed at averting a war. Now investors are watching the next round of nuclear talks between major powers and Iran next week. Major powers planned to offer an easing of sanctions on trading gold and other precious metals with Iran, in return for Iranian steps to shut down the nation's newly expanded Fordow uranium enrichment plant. However it’s hard to expect any breakthrough until after Iran's elections in June.
For the coming week expect marine bunker prices to go sideways.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-02-21 |
618 |
660 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-02-21 |
685 |
720 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-02-21 |
653 |
712 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-02-21 |
717 |
787 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-02-21 |
545 |
605 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-02-21 |
460 |
540 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-02-21 |
645 |
725 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-02-21 |
731 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-02-21 |
664 |
852 |
|
Busan 2012-02-21 |
745 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-02-21 |
655 |
770 |
|
Fujairah 2012-02-21 |
735 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Feb. 20 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$95.22 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$115.60 |