The Bunker Review is contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
The Brent crude is today a benchmark for more than half the world’s oil and will probably exceed $100 a barrel for a fourth year in 2014 after OPEC bet that demand will not weaken enough to warrant production cuts.
The 12-nation group OPEC, accounting for 40 percent of global supply, kept is 30 million barrel a day output target in Vienna yesterday. Brent will average $105 in 2014, according to the median of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Some OPEC members most likely Saudi Arabia will probably need to reduce output later in 2014 to prevent a glut. Saudi Arabia has shown a real willingness to serve as the market balancer. The risk is there that 2014 will experience an overproduction, since the U.S. is producing the most oil in a quarter century and Iraq, Libya and Iran have said they plan to increase exports in the next several months. Our estimate for 2014 is that the Brent crude oil price will stay around $100 per barrel plus/minus $15 per barrel.
The Chairman of the OPEC meeting, Ali al-Naimi, oil minister of OPEC’s largest producer Saudi Arabia told reporters at the end of three hours of closed-door talks in Vienna on Wednesday, “We are all satisfied, the oil market is in the best condition it can be. Demand is great, economic growth is improving”.
OPEC’s daily output fell to a two-year low of 30,007 million barrels in November, that’s 1,4 million barrels a day above the expected demand for the group’s crude in the first quarter, according to IEA. A growing production is expected, Iran could boost production to 4 million barrels a day next year if sanctions are lifted. Libya’s crude output is expected to rise shortly to 1,5 million barrels a day. The political protests that have disrupted supply are resolved, according to Libyan Oil Minister Abdulbari al-Arusi. The OPEC members are all optimistic. “Why cut production? Demand is there,” said al-Naimi.
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Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
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|
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Rotterdam 2013-12-05 |
582 |
635 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-12-05 |
585 |
610 |
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|
|
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Gibraltar 2013-12-05 |
599 |
649 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-12-05 |
605 |
640 |
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|
|
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St Petersburg 2013-12-05 |
400 |
440 |
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St Petersburg 2012-12-05 |
500 |
570 |
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|
|
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Panama Canal 2013-12-05 |
614 |
677 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-12-05 |
645 |
790 |
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|
|
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Busan 2013-12-05 |
658 |
732 |
|
Busan 2012-12-05 |
638 |
797 |
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|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-12-05 |
612 |
730 |
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Fujairah 2012-12-05 |
604 |
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All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
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Product |
Close Dec. 04 |
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Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$97,20 |
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Brent Crude Oil |
$111,88 |