MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Oct 14

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated irregular changes on Oct.11

380 HSFO - USD/MT 391.90 (+1.58)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 430.86 (+1.98)
MGO - USD/MT 660.77 (-2.04)

Meantime, world oil indexes also demonstrated upward changes on Oct.11. after Iranian state media said that two rockets had struck an Iranian tanker traveling through the Red Sea.

Brent for December settlement increased by $1.41 to $60.51 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose by $1.15 to $54.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.81 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery increased by $16.25.

Today indexes slight down amid uncertainties for global economic growth and oil demand.

On Oct.11, the Iranian tanker Sabiti, sailing through the Red Sea, had been struck by two unidentified objects believed to be missiles, causing a fire and oil leakage into the sea. However, the Iranian government later undermined the credibility of the report by saying later that the ship had not been set on fire. The consultancy Tankertrackers.com noted that Sabiti was still making surprisingly good speed after the attack. Oil indexes rose sharply on fears that the incident might cause new tensions between the Gulf’s two biggest political rivals. An Iranian government spokesman on Oct.12 said Iran would respond after the facts had been studied. Separately, a senior security official said video evidence had provided leads about the incident. Moreover, a special committee has been set up to investigate the attack on Sabiti. Its report will soon be submitted to the authorities for decision.

Saudi Arabia said it received a distress message from the damaged tanker but the vessel kept moving and switched off its transponder before it could provide assistance.

The US oil and gas rig count fell by 12 rigs to 919 last week, continuing a downward trend since late 2018 as drilling activity gradually slowed in most of the domestic large unconventional basins. Some believe the rig count could continue ticking down, even though operators have increasingly been able to produce more oil with fewer rigs.

Oil prices were also supported by hopes that talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington would culminate in a partial trade deal and delay planned U.S. tariff increases against Beijing. Trump met Liu in the White House after two days of top-level discussions between the two sides. Trump himself tweeted: “Good things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days. I will be meeting with the Vice Premier today. All would like to see something significant happen!”.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand forecast yet again, citing the weakening global economy. In its latest Oil Market Report, the agency predicts that demand will grow by 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2019 and 1.2 mb/d in 2020, both of which are downward revisions by 100,000 bpd from previous estimates. It is the latest in a series of downgrades to demand forecasts, as the weakening economy continues to slow consumption growth. The downgrade for 2019 came as the result of revisions to its 2018 data than anything else, and it sees demand on the upswing, at least relative to earlier this year.

Inventories remain large. OECD inventories rose once again, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Stocks are now back close to the 3-billion-barrel level, a large stockpile that was common during the 2016 bust.

The problem for the oil market is not only weak demand and a slowing economy - supply also continues to grow. According to IEA non-OPEC supply could expand by 1.8 mb/d in 2018 and 2.2 mb/d in 2020. Both figures significantly outpace demand growth. That raises the pressure on OPEC+ to extend the production cuts or even deepen them. That will likely to be discussed on the next OPEC+ meeting that will take place in December.

We expect bunker prices to demonstrate upward changes today: 6-8 USD up for IFO, 10-14 USD up for MGO.