MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Oct 16

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated downward  changes on Oct.15

380 HSFO - USD/MT 372.92 (-11.88)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 412.65 (-10.46)
MGO - USD/MT 657.74 (-7.30)

Meantime, world oil indexes also demonstrated irregular changes on Oct.15 amid concerns about the positive result of U.S.-China trade talks and OPEC’s hope to balance markets beyond 2020 in a sign of possible further supply curbs.

Brent for December settlement decreased by $0.61 to $58.74 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell by $0.78 to $52.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.93 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery increased by $4.25.

Today indexes rise on hopes on a potential Brexit deal between Britain and the European Union and on signals from OPEC and its allies that further supply curbs could be possible.

Last talks between Britain and the European Union to get a Brexit deal ahead of a summit of the bloc's leaders this week ran past midnight to Oct.16, but it was still unclear if Britain could avoid postponing its departure, due on Oct. 31. It is expected any deal that avoids a "hard" or no-deal Brexit should boost economic growth and in turn oil growth and prices.

Providing more support, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries "will do whatever (is) in its power" along with its allied producers to sustain oil market stability beyond 2020.

Oil indexes are under the pressure because of the doubts emerged over the trade agreement touted by President Donald Trump at the end of last week due to a lack of detail and after reports China wanted further talks before completing the agreement. Some said upside on trade optimism may be limited barring further movement on U.S.-China import tariffs which have been blamed for slowing global economic growth and lowering oil demand.

Data on Oct.15 showed that German investor sentiment worsened again in October amid concern that Europe's biggest economy is headed for a recession. Meanwhile, a report overnight showed that China's factory gate prices declined at the fastest pace in more than three years in September. That came after customs data on Oct.14 showing that Chinese imports contracted for a fifth straight month in September. The weak data added to worries over the global economic fallout from the protracted Sino-U.S. trade war, despite claims of progress toward a deal, and added to doubts over the future outlook for oil demand.

Russia and Saudi Arabia signed new cooperation agreements covering oil services and petrochemicals, on the sidelines of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Saudi Arabia on Oct.14. Cooperation between the two countries has increased in recent years, with bilateral energy agreements emerging alongside the establishment of the OPEC/non-OPEC crude production agreement.

Iran will not leave the last Friday attack on the Sabiti tanker unpunished, President Hassan Rouhani said during his media conference. The Iranian President also said government officials had seen footage of the attack and it suggested several rockets had been launched at the vessel. Rouhani did not say who Tehran believed the culprit was but did note that it looked like the party behind the attack was a government rather than a terrorist group. Iranian tanker Sabiti was attacked on Friday, off the Saudi coast near the port of Jeddah. Initial reports in the Iranian media blamed the attack on Saudi Arabia, but later the National Iranian Tanker Company, which confirmed the attack, said there was no evidence pointing towards any one particular country. Saudi Arabia was quick to deny any blame.

On Oct.14 U.S. President Trump imposed sanctions on Turkey and demanded the NATO ally stop a military incursion in northeast Syria that is rapidly reshaping the battlefield of the world's deadliest ongoing war. Prices could also get a boost this week as investors are expecting a drawdown in crude inventories in the United States.

We expect bunker prices to demonstrate irregular changes today: 3-5 USD up for IFO, 2-4 USD down for MGO.