MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Nov 11

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) declined on Nov 08:

380 HSFO - USD/MT - 351.58 (-4.98)
180 HSFO - USD/MT – 393.61 (-4.76)
MGO - USD/MT – 664.46 (-3.17)

Meantime, world oil indexes continued irregular changes on Nov.08 following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China

Brent for January settlement increased by $0.22 to $62.51 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose by $0.09 to $57.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.27 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery lost $6.75.

Today morning oil indexes demonstrate slight downward evolution.

The 16-month trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has slowed economic growth around the world and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020.

Donald Trump told reporters he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China but that Beijing would like him to do so. The comments came after officials from both countries said China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods in a “phase one” trade deal if it is completed. However, the plan faces stiff internal opposition in the U.S. administration, and U.S. officials have signaled opposing views on the status of talks.

Moreover, Trump said on Saturday that trade talks with China were moving along "very nicely," but the United States would only make a deal with Beijing if it was the right one for America.
Underlining the impact of the trade war, data over the weekend showed that China's producer prices fell the most in more than three years in October, as the manufacturing sector weakened, hit by the dispute and declining demand.

Oil prices have also been under pressure since OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said that he was more optimistic about the outlook for 2020, appearing to downplay any need to cut output more deeply. A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, such as Russia, will limit supplies until March next year. The producers meet Dec. 5-6 in Vienna to review that policy.

At the same time, it is forecasted, that even if a partial agreement between U.S. and China is reached, the impetus for demand will not be enough to avoid an oversupply next year, meaning that OPEC will still need to make bigger production cuts. From the other side, OPEC and its partners will probably keep output steady when they meet next month as markets are on track to re-balance

OPEC’s crude oil production jumped by 1.26 million barrels per day from a decade-low in September to 29.71 million bpd in October, as Saudi Arabia restored its production to levels before the attacks on its oil facilities in mid-September Accoerding to Platts and REUTERS. Saudi Arabia’s oil production jumped by 1.35 million bpd to 9.8 million bpd in October, as it appears to have fully recovered output after the September 14 attacks on vital oil infrastructure that took 5.7 million bpd—or 5 percent of global daily supply—offline. Despite the production recovery, the Saudis continue to overcomply with the OPEC+ deal by more than 500,000 bpd. OPEC’s official production figures for October are due out in its monthly report on November 14.
At the same time, U.S. energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a third week in a row. Drillers cut 7 rigs in the week to Nov. 8, bringing the total count down to 684, the lowest since April 2017.

According to the new rules by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), only 0.5-percent or lower sulfur fuel oil should be used on ships beginning January 1, 2020, unless said ships have installed the so-called scrubbers—systems that remove sulfur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers—so they can continue to use high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO). However, supply of compliant low-sulfur fuel could be just as sufficient, while demand may be subdued, due to the global economic and trade growth slowdown and at least some non-compliance from shippers, which analysts at Wood Mackenzie put at around 10 percent for 2020.Russia is one of the countries set to delay the IMO rules implementation, but only in its territorial waters including rivers, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, responding to questions sent by Bloomberg. Russia will still comply with the rules in international waters. Due to its predominantly high-sulfur oil, Russia is set to be one of the biggest losers in the new marine fuel rules.

We expect bunker prices may demonstrate irregular changes today:1-3 USD up for IFO, 4-6 USD down for MGO.