MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Jan 07

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated upward changes on January 06:

380 HSFO: USD/MT – 389.01 (+6.16)
VLS FO: USD/MT – 664.00 (+4.00)
MGO LS: USD/MT – 718.64 (+4.49)

Meantime, world oil indexes demonstrated multidirectional changes on Jan. 06

Brent for March settlement increased by $0.31 to $68.91 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February rose by $0.22 to $63.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.64 to WTI. Gasoil for January delivery decreased by $5.50.

Today morning oil indexes slightly decline sharply despite continuing tension between the U.S. and Iran. The market is recovering and closely monitoring how Tehran will respond.

Prices pared gains on growing doubts that Iran would strike back in a way that would disrupt oil supplies. Oil jumped more than 3% on Jan.03 after a U.S. air strike in Iraq killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, heightening concerns about an escalation in conflict in the Middle East and the possible impact on oil supplies.

The region accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil production, with a fifth of global oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan.05 threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq, the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), if U.S. troops were forced to withdraw from the country. Iraq’s parliament earlier called, in a nonbinding resolution, on U.S. and other foreign troops to leave Iraq. Trump also said that the United States would retaliate against Iran if Tehran were to strike back after the killing.

Shipping companies, including owners and operators of tankers and LNG carriers, are on high alert following escalated tensions in the Middle East, with risks of freight rates rising sharply, higher war insurance premiums and other risk mitigation efforts being implemented.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil choke point because of the large volumes of oil that flow through it. In 2018, its oil flow averaged 21 million b/d, or the equivalent of about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

OPEC oil output fell in December as Nigeria and Iraq adhered more closely to pledged reductions and top exporter Saudi Arabia made further cuts ahead of a new production-limiting accord. On average, the 14-member OPEC pumped 29.50 million barrels per day (bpd) last month. That is down 50,000 bpd from November's revised figure. OPEC's largest production drop of 80,000 bpd was in Nigeria, which exported less crude according to ship-tracking data and loading schedules.

OPEC's two top producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, each reduced output by 50,000 bpd. This puts Saudi supply more than 500,000 bpd below its 2019 target. Iraq's compliance, at 59%, is far lower than Saudi Arabia's but is up from 23% in November.

OPEC, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, had an agreement to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd in 2019. OPEC's share of the cut was about 800,000 bpd, to be made by 11 members, with exemptions for Iran, Libya and Venezuela.
At meetings in December, OPEC+ agreed to make an additional cut of 500,000 bpd as of Jan. 1, 2020.

We expect bunker prices will demonstrate irregular changes today: 1-3 USD up for IFO, 3-5 USD down for MGO.