Retail trade in the European Union has stagnated, says BIMCO in its’ market report. March numbers showed no increase over February and growth of only 1.4% over the last year. In fact, during the last 11 months, retail trade has been within -1.3% — +1.3% of the March numbers.
The so-called Far East to Europe trade includes trade into North Europe as well as countries bordering the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Within this definition of Europe, the twenty-seven countries in the European Union make up 55% of economic activity. Retail trade in the those countries has in the past shown a strong correlation to overall Far East-Europe trade volumes.
Despite slower average economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, retail trade remains 1.6% ahead of the pre-COVID trendline prediction, BIMCO report states. This could indicate that a downward adjustment is not far off.
“It is unlikely that retail trade will drop as low as in April 2020 this time around, as lockdowns so far in Europe appear to be a thing of the past,” says Rasmussen and adds: “In the meantime, there are clear signs of a softening. The key for the Far East to Europe container trade will be whether consumers will simply buy less or replace more expensive items with cheaper ones in which case container volumes would be less affected”, — says BIMCO report.