Ukraine exports is to represent only 0.4% of the total seaborne trade
Following the signing of a grain agreement by Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and the UN in late July, the rates for Black Sea routes are probably going to move north, mainly because of the war risk & the insurance complications, according to the Weekly Report of Xclusiv Shipbrokers.
However, analysts expect no effect to the bigger picture of dry freight rates.
“The grain seaborne trade is about 4% of the total seaborne trade and Ukraine’s grain seaborne exports were about 10 % of the total grain seaborne exports in 2021,” reads the reports.
According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers, that means that even if Ukraine exports the same amount of grain as in 2021, this will represent only 0.4 % of the total seaborne trade, but the actual exports will be 70 % -80 % of 2021 at best so this will actually represent less than 0.3 % of total seaborne trade.
Disruption of grain shipments from Ukrainian ports began after Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine began in February 2022. On 22 July 2022, Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and the UN signed an agreement to establish a humanitarian maritime corridor for commercial food exports from three key Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea – Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. The agreement is in force for 120 days and can be extended upon expiry.
Related links:
Ship carrying grain from Odesa is expected in Istanbul on August 2 - RF Defence Ministry >>>>
IMO welcomes maritime humanitarian corridor in Black Sea>>>>