2022 forecast for container shipping sector upped to $245bn, 65% higher YoY
Worldwide loaded container volumes in Q2 this year were 45.3m TEU
The profitability numbers continues to rise in Q2’2022, Therefore, full year forecast for the sector has been upped to $245bn, 65% higher than $148bn in 2021. The record profitability of the container shipping sector continued to grow in Q2 hitting an estimated $63.7bn in the second quarter of 2022, according to Blue Alpha Capital. The latest edition of the McCown Container Report takes the results of public-listed container lines in Q2, approximately two-thirds of capacity, and extrapolates these to the sector as a whole, according to Telegram channel of Morcenter-TEK.
The estimated figure of $63.7bn for Q2 is 123% higher than the $28.6bn recording in Q2 2021, and $5bn than the preceding quarter this year. It is the seventh straight quarter of record earnings for a sector a that for much of the previous two decades had struggled to even make a return on capital.
However, with forecast of global container volumes contracting, falling spot rates, and fleet growth, the question is increasingly whether profit levels for container shipping have peaked, and how steep the fall off will be when it comes, reads the statement.
On the volume side figures from Container Trade Statistics (CTS) showed a 1.6% drop in Q2 2022 volumes from its members – top container lines – from the same quarter in 2021. However, McCown also notes that worldwide loaded container volumes in Q2 this year were 45.3m teu up 6.4% on the preceding quarter.
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) was 3,472 points in August down from 4,040 points in the previous month, and a record high of 5,051 in January this year. The index is still multiple times higher than the 1,160 points recording in August 2020.
On the supply side the newbuilding orderbook is almost 30% of vessel slot capacity currently on the water, however, McCown notes that capacity above replacement will not be delivered until late 2023 onwards.
The market leaders are striving to use their profit efficiently. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said that the company had ordered 22 ships, twelve of them with 24,000 TEU and ten with 13,000 TEU. The new ships are worth around $3 billion and will add almost a quarter to the fleet in TEU terms. The company has also launched a fleet renewal programme covering more than 150 ships, or nearly two thirds of its fleet, while it is eyeing port terminal investments in 2023.
It would be logical to invest in port terminal infrastructure at locations where we are already strong,” Habben Jansen said, suggesting Europe but adding that North or South America were potential sites.
"I would be surprised if there wasn't an investment in the terminal area within the next 12 months," he said.
