Cargo traffic on the corridor’s Transcaspian line surged 3-fold
Albeit intense, the development of the North-South international transport corridor (ITC) does not make the route a serious alternative to the historical routes due to its low capacity and difficulties in cooperation between the partner states, Pavel Ivankin, Chairman of the National Research Center of Shipping and Infrastructure, said at the international conference ‘Chemical SC-2023’ held in Moscow.
According to him, North-South ITC is undergoing rapid development: in the first quarter of 2023, the cargo traffic is expected to double to 2.3 million tonnes with the corridor’s western line showing a 2-fold increase, Transcaspian — 3-fold, eastern — 33 times. “The route can hardly be considered as a logistical alternative. If 10 million tonnes are transported here by the end of the year, this will be an achievement. Compare it with Russian Railways which loads more than 3.5 million tonnes per day. The route has a potential, indeed. For example Iran says it is ready to handle 20-25 million tonnes. The development of the corridor requires investment, but it is still premature to rely on it,” said the expert adding that one of the main problems is the difference in business organization. Pavel Ivankin notes a very low digital interaction with Iran and the states of Central Asia,. “We are not able to receive prompt and reliable information about the cargo transiting their territory. For some shipments, we see an increase in delays by 5-6 times. And it is very difficult to speed up the process, for example, by administrative methods,” he says.
Therefore, another trend is emerging: Russian shippers are returning to their usual routes in the North-West. “If there are no additional risks associated with secondary sanctions or new sanctions, the North-West has an opportunity to recover to the level of 2021 in full, including the container traffic. The lost cargo flow to Europe can be offset with transportation, albeit extended, to the Asia-Pacific region. This will be partly facilitated by the overloading of the Eastern Polygon and changes in the cost of logistics,” said the expert.
North-South international transport corridor (ITC) is a 7,200-kilometre-long transport artery from St Petersburg to ports in Iran and India. North-South ITC has a western and an eastern branch, both running across Iran. The western one foresees cargo transportation by road via Rasht, the eastern one – by railway. The end point in Iran is the port of Bandar Abbas from which cargo can be delivered to India by sea. The western branch also crosses Azerbaijan, the eastern one – Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Besides, direct water transportation from Russia to Iran by the Caspian Sea is possible.
The volume of Russian cargo transported by the North-South ITC is expected to double by 2030, from the current 17 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes.