Recent enforcement actions by the United States and the European Union targeting Iranian and Russian oil exports are expected to significantly affect global tanker trade patterns.
These measures are likely to accelerate the shift of sanctioned crude shipments toward a parallel fleet operating outside mainstream shipping channels.
According to Drewry Maritime Research, the increased use of non-compliant or dark fleet vessels to transport oil from sanctioned countries will reduce the availability of tankers for legitimate trade, tightening tonnage supply in the conventional market and providing support to charter rates.
The sanctions may also disrupt established supply chains for Iranian oil, at least temporarily, until alternative covert arrangements are reestablished.
The lowering of price thresholds for Russian crude and further restrictions on refined products are expected to make it more difficult for mainstream shipowners to participate in this trade, pushing demand toward older or less regulated tonnage.
This shift could maintain elevated secondhand values for vintage crude tankers and delay vessel scrapping activity.
The evolving situation continues a trend observed since 2022, when demand for ships older than 15 years surged amid rising trade in sanctioned oil.
As Drewry notes, this demand reduced demolition volumes and supported asset prices in the secondhand market.
Renewed pressure from recent sanctions could reinforce this dynamic, further tightening mainstream fleet availability and influencing route structures, especially for Suezmax, Aframax, and VLCC segments.