The Bunker Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
At the close of Week 33, the global bunker indices MABUX extended their downward movement. The 380 HSFO index dropped by USD 11.71 — from USD 468.61/MT a week earlier to USD 456.90/MT — nearing the USD 450 mark. The VLSFO index fell by USD 11.21, from USD 553.77/MT to USD 542.56/MT. The MGO index declined by USD 14.94, from USD 767.70/MT to USD 752.76/MT. At the time of writing, the global bunker market continues to demonstrate a moderate downward trend.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — was virtually unchanged, edging up by just $0.50 from $85.16 last week to $85.66, and still staying well below the psychological $100.00 SS breakeven level. In contrast, the weekly average of the index fell by $1.57. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread narrowed by another $1.00, from $56.00 to $55.00, with the index briefly dipping below the $50.00 mark during the week. The weekly average in the port dropped by $7.34. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread declined by $8.00, from $98.00 last week to $91.00, once again below the $100.00 mark, while the weekly average fell by $6.66. The downward trajectory in SS Spread indices is expected to persist next week, with conventional VLSFO likely to maintain better margins than HSFO plus scrubber. For more details, refer to the Differentials section on mabux.com.
Global gas prices continue to trade within a narrow range despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Market fundamentals remain favorable, with stable supply levels holding firm even amid occasional production disruptions. A notable recent development was the commissioning of the LNG Canada project; however, it has yet to significantly affect the global LNG market balance. Persistently high temperatures are fueling expectations of rising demand in Asia, but so far this has not resulted in a marked increase in import volumes. The absence of clear demand growth continues to support price stability within the current range.
As of August 12, European regional storage facilities were 72.27% full — an increase of 2.31% compared to the previous week. For the first time this year, storage capacity levels also surpassed the figure recorded at the start of the year (71.33%), exceeding it by 0.94%. The process of filling gas storage facilities continues. By the end of Week 33, the European gas benchmark TTF declined by 1.997 euros/MWh, falling from 34.406 euros/MWh last week to 32.409 euros/MWh.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) remained unchanged at 768 USD by the end of the week. At the same time, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel widened in favor of conventional fuel: on August 12, the difference reached 39 USD compared to just 4 USD a week earlier. On that day, MGO LS in the port of Sines was quoted at 729 USD/MT. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on the mabux.com website.
At the close of Week 33, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP) — indicated undervaluation across all bunker fuel types in the world’s largest hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: The average weekly undervaluation narrowed by 7 points in Rotterdam, 15 points in Singapore, 13 points in Fujairah, and 2 points in Houston.
• VLSFO segment: Average weekly MDI undervaluation declined by 2 points in Rotterdam, 13 points in both Singapore and Fujairah, and 15 points in Houston.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam shifted into the undervaluation zone, bringing all four ports into undervaluation territory. MDI values rose by 12 points in Rotterdam and 8 points in Singapore but decreased by 5 points in Fujairah and 1 point in Houston. Rotterdam’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP, while Fujairah’s MDI approached the $100.00 mark.
Overall, the market structure has fully shifted toward undervaluation in all bunker fuel segments. We expect this trend to persist into next week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark can be found in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on the website mabux.com.
INTERTANKO has issued an update on the commercial and legal implications of long-chain hydrocarbons (C6+), also referred to as heavy LNG hydrocarbons, for LNG carriers and LNG-fuelled vessels. In an article published on the UK P&I Club’s website, INTERTANKO warned that even trace concentrations of such components can have significant operational and financial consequences for both LNG carriers and LNG-fuelled ships. For LNG-fuelled vessels in particular, the potential impact can be especially severe. The association cited cases where debunkering became necessary due to fuel-system fouling caused by C6+ compounds. Such operations are not only logistically complex but can also result in commercial losses and unexpected delays—especially where adequate debunkering infrastructure is lacking. To mitigate these risks, INTERTANKO recommends that shipowners adopt a proactive approach. This may include requesting enhanced cargo analysis in accordance with GPA 2286, a more sensitive testing protocol capable of detecting low concentrations of C6+ elements that may not appear on standard quality certificates.
We expect moderate, mixed movements to persist in the global bunker market next week, with a potential upward trend emerging toward the week’s end.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
