Pareto Securities said there is a “good chance” that Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) spot earnings will push past $100,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, a view flagged as the investment bank opened its 32nd annual Energy Conference in Oslo on Wednesday.
The call came from Eirik Haavaldsen, Pareto’s head of research, who framed the $100,000/day threshold as achievable in the seasonal Q4 upswing for crude tankers, as benchmark VLCC earnings have firmed into late summer and early September and as owners and charterers eye tighter tonnage lists into year-end.
Recent market prints show Baltic Exchange assessments in late August putting the VLCC TCE index near the high-$40,000s/day, with Middle East loadings expected to rise into Q4.
On June 23, route indices briefly surged and at least one VLCC was reported “on subjects” above $100,000/day, indicating spikes are possible even outside peak season.
Into September, the TD3C Middle East–China run has been hovering around the high-$40,000s to high-$50,000s/day range depending on week and route, while listed owners’ disclosed Q3 fixtures illustrate how realized TCEs can lag spot prints.
Haavaldsen’s stance aligns with Pareto’s long-held view that constrained VLCC supply meets supportive demand into winter, with a slim orderbook for modern VLCCs, an aging fleet, and geopolitical routing frictions elongating voyages; more Middle East liftings in Q4 and stronger refinery runs would add further upward pressure.
The Energy Conference is one of Europe’s largest energy investor gatherings, drawing roughly 2,000 participants and more than 160 presenting companies, with the 2025 edition running September 10–11 in Oslo.
Pareto Securities is a Norwegian investment bank and broker-dealer providing research and capital-markets services to corporate and institutional clients.