Bunker Review on week 51, 2012
The Bunker Review is provided to Portnews by Marine Bunker Exchange.
A fear that U.S. lawmakers would not agree a deal to avoid mandatory tax increases and spending cuts before a year-end deadline still remains the biggest threat to the current oil rally. During the talks this week both sides: republicans and democrats, made statements which were aimed at averting a series of spending cuts and tax increases that would take effect in January. House Speaker John Boehner said on Dec.18 he will push a budget "plan B" measure that would include higher taxes for people earning more than $1 million, while continuing to negotiate with President Barack Obama. That fueled a wave of optimism that U.S. economic recovery, and along with it demand for crude oil, would get a shot in the arm. Also, economic stimulus has tended to weaken the U.S. dollar, which attracts foreign investors to dollar-denominated crude futures.
It is expected that The House of Representatives may vote in the near future on House Speaker John Boehner's "Plan B" proposal. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama said he would veto "Plan B" as it would put "too big a burden on the middle class". As a result, though the fiscal cliff talks reportedly have progressed this week, market participants are still uneasy because wide differences remain and uncertainty lingers.
U.S. oil stockpiles fell by 1 million barrels last week to the lowest level since October, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Stocks of distillate, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 1.1 million barrels, and a measure of demand for those fuels rose 20% from a week ago. For months, oil stockpiles have been rising amid higher U.S. output and cooling fuel demand. But the present data suggests that lower diesel and heating oil stocks could prompt refineries to produce more of those fuels, and as a result, may spark worries of supply problems and additional price gains.
Also lending support to oil was an improving outlook for the euro zone economy after Germany's Ifo economic research institute said its business climate index rose to 102.4, higher than the forecast of 102.0. A key business survey in Germany added to the improving sentiment among investors by suggesting that Europe's biggest economy was likely to bounce back quickly from its slowdown.
Among geopolitical issues, tension in the Middle East is still keeping oil prices elevated. Iran's oil revenues have been cut in half this year from a year ago. The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency expects to reach a deal with Iran next month to resume a stalled investigation into suspected nuclear weapon research. Meanwhile, Iran has said it will not stop its higher-grade uranium enrichment in response to external demands. Israel has threatened air strikes on Iran if its nuclear work is not curbed through diplomacy or sanctions, keeping concerns about potential oil supply disruption in focus and the threat of a Middle East war damaging to the global economy.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2012-12-20 |
581 |
615 |
|
Rotterdam 2011-12-20 |
610 |
649 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2012-12-20 |
597 |
645 |
|
Gibraltar 2011-12-20 |
631 |
700 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2012-12-20 |
510 |
570 |
|
St Petersburg 2011-12-20 |
405 |
500 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-12-20 |
640 |
776 |
|
Panama Canal 2011-12-20 |
645 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2012-12-20 |
627 |
785 |
|
Busan 2011-12-20 |
702 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2011-12-20 |
603 |
- |
|
Fujairah 2012-12-20 |
664 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent= $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI)= $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Dec.19 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$89.51 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$110.36 |