• 2016 October 13 16:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices to continue irregular changes next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes have demonstrated irregular changes with slight upward evolution during the week.  International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the fuel  market will remain in a state of oversupply through the first half of 2017. The agency lowered its oil demand forecast once again, dropping demand growth for 2016 to 1.2 million barrels per day (in September it expected growth of 1.3 mb/d). Two consecutive months of downgrades to its demand figures come as the agency sees vanishing OECD growth and a marked deceleration in China.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has not had any firm trend and showed only slight rising in the period of Oct.06 – Oct.13:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 258.64 to 267.50 USD/MT (+8,86)
    180 HSFO - up from 300.64 to 308.14 USD/MT (+7,50)
    MGO          - up from 500.07 to 502.79 USD/MT (+2,72)


    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aims to cut production to a range of 32.50 million barrels per day (bpd) to 33.0 million bpd. Saudi Arabia said it was optimistic a global production deal to limit supplies could be reached at an OPEC meeting scheduled for the end of next month, and the oil-price could recover to $60 a barrel by the end of 2016.  As per Energy Minister Al-Falih, the kingdom is prepared to deal with any oil price and there’s absolutely no reason to panic over the country’s balance sheet (the nation’s budget deficit reached 16 percent of gross domestic product last year).

    Meantime, IEA warned that ongoing production gains from some OPEC members could more than offset expected output cuts. In September, OPEC’s collective output rose to 33.64 mb/d, an all-time record. Iraq added 90,000 barrels per day; Libya added about 70,000 bpd; Nigeria brought back 20,000 bpd; Iran added 30,000 bpd. Much more oil could be forthcoming from some of those nations, particularly Nigeria and Libya, if damaged infrastructure can be repaired and brought back online.

    Besides, OPEC must resolve the scale of the internal differences before securing a deal to cut supply. Venezuela and Iraq are disputing the data, which could determine the production target for each country when caps on members’ output are decided next month.  Their own figures for September output were 565,000 barrels a day higher than estimates compiled by the OPEC from so-called secondary sources. The total gap between the estimates of secondary sources and countries’ direct communications to OPEC was 866,000 barrels a day last month.

    Russia is ready to join OPEC in limiting oil production with either a freeze or a cut as it is (as per President Putin) probably the only proper decision to preserve stability in the global energy market. The news from Russia have supported the fuel indexes. Market expects Russian oil companies will unify behind their government if talks with the OPEC result in an agreement to limit output, although Russia’s largest producer Rosneft has questioned the need to reduce output recently. So far this month, Russia has pumped crude and a light oil called condensate at a rate of 11.2 million barrels a day. If that continued for the whole month, it would set a post-Soviet record, beating September’s 11.1 million barrels a day.

    U.S. producers have taken advantage of the increase of oil prices to boost drilling. A three new oil rigs were brought online, bringing the total count to 428. It marks six straight weeks of oil rig gains, and the fifteen-week streak of no oil rig losses is the one since 2011. Since June 24, 2016, the rig count has risen by 98 sites. From its 2016 low on May 27, the count is up by 112.

    Fuel indexes may need to rally further before China’s producers may compensate a drop in output to the lowest in more than six years. Forecast predicted production in China will stabilize with prices around $50 a barrel and may not rebound until they are above $60. The country’s production during August dropped 9.9 percent from a year ago to 16.45 million tons (about 3.89 million barrels a day, the lowest since December 2009) as state-run companies shut fields too expensive to operate amid the worst price crash in a generation.

    Growing Asian demand for West African crude is fueling a worldwide surge in shipping rates for the largest oil tankers. Chartering rates for Suezmaxes and very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have recovered rapidly. The reason is that Asian refiners return to the market after turnaround period and export from West Africa resumed after pipeline disruptions in Nigeria. Chinese loadings of West African crude are set to average 1.1 million barrels per day in October, while Nigerian loadings are now scheduled to reach some 1.9 million barrels per day next month. With higher rates, fewer imports could come into the U.S., reducing overall inventories.  As a result it could set up additional supporting factor for bunker prices in coming weeks.

    We expect bunker prices will continue irregular changes  with some chances to rise slightly amid speculations on possible output cut agreement. The volatility on the market remains.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    *  MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)





2024 July 16

18:02 China extends visa-free transit policy to 37 ports
17:25 Works on schedule for the Ravenna regasifier, with the plant operational in the first quarter of 2025
17:05 STX Heavy Industries changes name to “HD Hyundai Marine Engine”
16:45 OOCL's revenue rises 14pc to US$2.2bln
16:20 Saltchuk acquires all of the outstanding shares of Overseas Shipholding Group
15:57 EU sets four conditions for the port of Piraeus inverstments
15:41 Serbia to open tender for Prahovo port overhaul in 2024
15:37 EIB lends €90 million for sustainable expansion of the Port of Livorno
15:34 Crew of capsized oil tanker off Oman still missing
15:14 Lomarlabs signs with Cargokite to develop a new ship class of micro ships
14:47 Greece extends naval drills that deter Russian oil transfers - Bloomberg
14:08 The Official Journal of the European Union publishes the first-ever EU regulation to reduce methane emissions
13:24 High cat fines found in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region bunker fuel samples, alerts CTI-Maritec
12:58 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding works to acquire over 866,671 sqm of land for new clean energy ship manufacturing base
12:42 GTT entrusted by Samsung Heavy Industries with the tank design of a new FLNG
10:47 Maersk signs an MoU for ship recycling in Bahrain

2024 July 15

18:06 European Shipowners and Maritime Transport Unions launch initiative to support shipping and seafarers in the digital transition
17:35 APM Terminals Mumbai switches to 80% renewable electricity
17:05 Seaspan Shipyards welcomes the formation of the “ICE Pact”
16:41 World’s first entirely hydrogen-powered ferry welcomes passengers in San Francisco Bay
16:26 FMC issues request for additional information regarding Gemini Agreement
16:24 Saipem awarded two offshore projects in Saudi Arabia worth approximately 500 million USD
16:12 Pecém Complex selects Stolthaven Terminals and GES Consortium as H2V Hub green ammonia operator
15:43 Singapore's bunker sales rise 8.5% in the first half of 2024
15:27 TORM purchases eight and sells one second-hand MR vessel
14:55 Adani plans to build port in Vietnam
13:35 Regulator gives conditional nod to HD Korea Shipping's purchase of stake in STX Heavy
13:02 HD Korea Shipbuilding wins US$2.67 billion order to build 12 container carriers
12:51 Maersk introduces SH3 ocean service between China and Bangladesh
12:24 ABS to сlass two new Seatrium FPSOs for Petrobras
11:42 CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal surpasses throughput of 5 mln TEUs
11:11 Fincantieri launches the seventh PPA “Domenico Millelire” in Riva Trigoso
10:51 India's first transshipment port receives its first container ship
10:35 The “Egypt Green Hydrogen” project in SCZONE wins a contract worth € 397 million to export green fuel to Europe

2024 July 14

15:17 FMC issues request for additional information regarding Gemini agreement
13:06 Lummus and MOL Group begin engineering execution on advanced waste plastic recycling plant in Hungary
10:51 Chinese line launches new Arctic container service to Arkhangelsk
09:49 Malta PM tours Abela toured MSC World Europa officially inagurates Valletta shore power

2024 July 13

15:47 €11 million for 1-MW Dynamic Electrolyser Unit
14:11 PSA Group and Singapore mitigate impact of global supply chain disruptions
12:23 NREL: Offshore wind turbines offer path for clean hydrogen production
10:06 MMMCZCS releases a technical, environmental, and techno-economic analysis of the impacts of vessels preparation and conversion

2024 July 12

18:00 Qingdao Port International to buy oil terminal assets for $1.30 billion
17:36 Saipem signs framework agreement with bp for offshore activities in Azerbaijan
17:06 AG&P LNG and BK LNG Solution signs an agreement to bring BKLS's first LNG spot cargo into China
16:31 Allseas removes final Brent platform with historic lift
15:58 ZPMC Qidong Marine Engineering launches the world’s largest FPSO bow section for Petrobras
15:25 MSC acquires Gram Car Carriers
14:58 ABP boosts marine capability through pilot launch upgrades
14:34 Fincantieri receives ISO 31030 attestation from RINA
13:52 Second new dual-fuel fast Ro-Pax ferry to enter service for Balearia after successful sea trials
13:24 ADNOC deploys AIQ’s world-first RoboWell AI solution in offshore operations
12:59 ABS issues AIP for new gangway design from Pengrui and COSCO
11:38 Port of Long Beach data project receives $7.875 mln to speed goods delivery
11:15 ZeroNorth to provide its eBDN solution on 12 barges operated by Vitol Bunkers in Singapore
10:46 Seatrium secures customer contract agreement from Teekay Shipping for the repairs and upgrades of a fleet of vessels
10:14 Liquid Wind and Uniper enter into strategic partnership to accelerate the development of eFuels

2024 July 11

18:06 Yanmar and Amogy to explore ammonia-to-hydrogen integration for decarbonized marine power
17:36 COSCO Shipping receives first 7500 CEU LNG dual-fuel PCTC
17:06 Monjasa adds two tankers and targeting West Africa’s offshore industry
16:34 Biden administration announces funding for 15 small shipyards in 12 states
16:10 Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization attracts nearly $1.7bln of investment in ports, maritime sector
15:52 The added value of Chinese port cities up to US$869.05 bln in 2023
15:25 HD Hyundai becomes first Korean shipbuilder to sign MSRA with US Navy
13:41 NovaAlgoma orders the world’s largest cement carrier
13:21 Steerprop selected to provide comprehensive propulsion systems for world's largest cable-laying vessel
12:41 Integrated Wartsila propulsion package supports decarbonisation and efficiency goals for James Fisher tankers
12:36 MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 28, 2024
12:10 Valencia Port Authority signs an agreement with C.N.E. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells to promote hydrogen research
11:41 Long Beach, Los Angeles ports partner for zero-emissions future