MABUX: Bunker market this morning, June 04

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) continued firm downward trend on June 03:

380 HSFO - 401.48 (-11.82)
180 HSFO - USD/MT - 442.18 (-11.28)
MGO - USD/MT - 657.23 (-16.83)

Meantime, world oil indexes slightly decrease on June 03 as Saudi Arabia comments indicating OPEC would extend supply cuts supported prices, while concerns that U.S. tariffs on China and Mexico would hurt demand weakened crude market sentiment.

Brent for August settlement declined by $0.71 to $61.28 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery decreased by $0.25 to $53.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of 8.03 to WTI. Gasoil for June lost $15.75.

Today morning oil indexes changed insignificant with no any firm trend.

Saudi Arabia insisted that the OPEC was near an agreement to extend the oil cut deal, which currently expires at the end of this month, to the second half of the year in an effort to rebalance the market. Despite some speculation of a delay until July, OPEC is still scheduled to hold its official meeting on June 25 in Vienna, with non-OPEC ministers expected to join the following day.

Iran said U.S. military vessels in the Gulf are within range of Iranian missiles, warning any clash between the two countries would push oil prices above $100 a barrel. Iran and the United States have been drawn into starker confrontation in the past month, a year after Washington pulled out of a deal between Iran and global powers to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting international sanctions. Washington re-imposed sanctions last year and ratcheted them up in May, ordering all countries to halt imports of Iranian oil. In recent weeks it has also hinted at military confrontation, saying it was sending extra forces to the Middle East to respond to an Iranian threat. The news are still the upward driver for oil and fuel indexes.

Reports of a new policy paper published by the Chinese government pushed oil prices lower. The policy paper held U.S. President Trump responsible for the recent breakdown in trade negotiations. Following latest exchange of tariffs, Chinese refiners and commodity traders began shunning U.S. crude oil, refusing to commit to long-term contracts, which in itself weighed on oil and fuel prices. The other factor that pressured oil was the renewed concern for global economic growth as a result of the trade rout between the world’s largest economies.

Meanwhile, President Trump also threatened tariffs against Mexico, which has deepened the pessimistic mood om the global fuel market. Trump said he will impose 5-percent tariffs on Mexican goods next Monday if Mexico doesn’t stop illegal immigration across the border between the two.

The amount of crude oil exporting from OPEC member countries to the North America dropped in 2018 to an average of 2.813 million barrels per day—a drop of 406,000 barrels per day, or a 12.6-percent decrease from 2017. OPEC’s crude oil exports to Europe also declined, from 4.654 million barrels per day to 4.577 million barrels per day.

In the end of last week US-led forces have blown up three oil tankers in Syria as the United States increases its pressure on Syria. The strike was carried about by coalition planes, which hit three oil tankers, leaving four dead. In the area controlled by Assad, oil consumption stands at around 136,000 bpd. Production, meanwhile, is only 24,000 barrels per day. This means that the regime must import significant volumes of crude oil at an estimated expense of more than $2 billion per year.

We expect bunker prices will continue downward trend today in a range minus 5-12 USD.