MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Oct 08

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated irregular changes on Oct.7

380 HSFO - USD/MT 392.17 (-0.19)
180 HSFO - USD/MT 430.23 (-1.26)
MGO - USD/MT 658.27 (+3.63)

Meantime, world oil indexes also demonstrated slight irregular changes on Oct.7.

Brent for December settlement decreased by $0.02 to $58.35 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell by $0.06 to $52.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.55 to WTI. Gasoil for October delivery increased by $9.00.

Today indexes rise as unrest in oil-producing countries Iraq and Ecuador raised concerns of supply disruption.

Protests in Iraq and Ecuador over poor economic conditions are threatening to disrupt output from the members of OPEC. The death toll has climbed after a week of unrest in Baghdad, capital of the second largest OPEC producer. In Ecuador, protests against austerity measures could reduce the Andean producer's crude output by 59,450 barrels per day. Ecuador, one of the smallest OPEC members, is pulling out of the bloc next year because of fiscal problems.

At the same time, OPEC saw its crude oil production plummet by the most in 17 years in September as the attacks on critical oil infrastructure in its largest producer Saudi Arabia took 5.7 million bpd offline for weeks. OPEC pumped 28.45 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last month, down by 1.48 million bpd from August. The September overall production was also the lowest monthly OPEC oil production level since May 2009. Output in Venezuela further dipped, by another 100,000 bpd to just 600,000 bpd in September. Iran’s crude oil production also fell, by 70,000 bpd to 2.23 million bpd. OPEC is set to release official figures in its Monthly Oil Market Report on Thursday, Oct. 10.

Trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions continue to influence the fuel market. Trade war offset initial highs reached by the market on a U.S. decision to stop protecting Kurdish rebels in Syria.

There are reports that the U.S.-China trade deal talks will be scaled down as the Chinese seem to not want to make any commitments as the Democrats continue to work towards impeachment. At the same time, there is information, that the Chinese had no intent in compromising on laws related to intellectual property. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, meanwhile, told that Chinese actions ahead of the trade talks, which included purchase of U.S. commodities, has been encouraging. He said the Trump administration remained optimistic of striking a deal at the talks that are resuming after being stalled in May. U.S.-China trade discussions will take place in Washington on Thursday, Oct.10 although expectations are low for a comprehensive deal that will end a trade war between the world's top economies

At the same time U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks that resumed at the weekend after a lengthy break broke down due to what media reports described as irreconcilable differences.

Trump warned in a tweet Monday about severe economic consequences for Turkey if the country does anything “off limits” following the White House’s announcement of U.S. troop withdrawal from Syria. His decision on the troop withdrawal pushed the oil indexes up.

We expect bunker prices to demonstrate slight irregular changes today: plus/minus 1-3 USD for IFO, 7-9 USD up for MGO.