MABUX: Bunker market this morning, June 26

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) dropped on June 25:

380 HSFO: USD/MT 285.64 (-6.47)
VLSFO: USD/MT 341.00 (-7.00)
MGO: USD/MT 419.06 (-8.15)

Meantime, world oil indexes changed irregular on Jun.25, after U.S. crude storage hit another record and coronavirus cases rebounded in countries like Germany and surged in heavily populated areas of the United States.

Brent for August settlement increased by $0.74 to $41.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery rose by $0.71 to $38.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $2.33 to WTI. Gasoil for July delivery lost $1.25 – $344.50.

Today morning global oil indexes continue slight upward trend.

OPEC considers oil markets are now well onto the path of recovery for the second half of the year after suffering historic price drops in the first half of 2020. Cartel acknowledged the demand destruction to oil markets as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, with demand falling by 20 to 24 million barrels per day. With energy investments also forecasted to contract by as much 20 per cent, or $1.5 trillion, this would make it critical to ensure investments are brought back into the sector to avoid an energy crisis. The main imminent challenge oil markets face is the risk of second pandemic wave, which could curtail demand again.

The United States on Jun.24 imposed sanctions on five Iranian ship captains who had delivered oil to Venezuela. The ships delivered around 1.5 million barrels of Iranian gasoline and related components. The Trump administration, which is seeking both to block Iran’s energy trade and bring down Maduro, has threatened reprisals and warned ports, shipping companies and insurers against facilitating the tankers. Iran has since April sent five tankers totalling about 1.5 million barrels to the leftist government of fuel-starved Venezuela.

The rising number of coronavirus cases among workers at Nigeria’s offshore oil fields and platforms is a growing concern for Africa’s largest oil producer, with disruption to output likely. Maintenance at the offshore Bonga oil field has already been disrupted after the operator, Shell, was forced to evacuate workers due to a coronavirus outbreak. Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer has recorded 21,371 cases of coronavirus. This comes as Nigeria was starting to cut its crude output in line with its OPEC+ obligations. According to preliminary estimations, Nigeria produced nearly 300,000 b/d in excess of its 1.412 million b/d quota in May.

According to a number of analyses, it will take years before U.S. shale production approaches pre-pandemic levels, if it ever does. None of them saw U.S. oil production returning to 13 million barrels per day (bpd) within the next few years. Comments from a handful of shale companies about restarting drilling now that WTI is in the high-$30s garnered a lot of attention in recent weeks. The run up in pricing has somewhat eased the panic in the oil industry. It estimates that the restart of shut in shale wells will bring 500,000 bpd back online. Meantime, the rig count is down by more than 70 percent, and the lack of new drilling will translate into steep decline rates, overwhelming the one-off jump in output from opening up shut-in production.

The amount of crude stored on tankers is showing signs of a slight descent in response to the waning economics for storage as production cuts and a measured demand recovery aids a rebalancing of the global oil market. The slowdown in storage is already starting to have a significant impact on spot freight rates. Floating storage reached its peak earlier this month but with demand recovering, some of the storage is being emptied out, which has helped push oil prices near four-month highs this week. There are currently close to 190 million barrels of crude on floating storage compared with 200 million barrels earlier in the month. The data estimates the volume of oil on tankers that are idled offshore for seven days or more.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) called for the European Union to accelerate low-carbon building renovations and introduce schemes to encourage consumers to replace inefficient old cars and fridges as part of a post-pandemic "green" recovery. Setting out its policy recommendations for the EU, the IEA said new policies would help ensure the European Commission's proposed 750 billion euro recovery fund boosts clean energy and avoids a sustained rebound in emissions after the pandemic. As the Commission aims to steer the bloc towards becoming climate neutral by 2050, the IEA said energy-saving stimulus investments should be a "prime target".

Iran plans to export oil from a port on its Gulf of Oman coast by March: a shift that would avoid using the Strait of Hormuz shipping route that has been a focus of regional tension for decades. Tensions have spiked between Tehran and Washington since 2018, when the United States withdrew from a 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and six major powers and President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran, hammering its vital oil exports. Iran has often threatened to block the Strait if its crude exports were shutdown by U.S. sanctions, a move Washington has said would cross a "red line" and would demand a response.

We expect IFO bunker prices may slightly rise by 1-3 USD today, VLSFO – add 3-5 USD, while MGO prices may change irregular in a range of plus-minus 1-3 USD.