MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 03

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs increased on July 02:

380 HSFO - USD/MT 291.01 (+2.32)
VLSFO - USD/MT 348.00 (+3.00)
MGO - USD/MT 421.33 (+3.39)

Meantime, world oil indexes also demonstrated upward changes on July 02, supported by a drop in U.S. unemployment and a drawdown in crude inventories, but the spike in U.S. coronavirus infections fanned concerns that economic activity will weaken in coming weeks.

Brent for September settlement increased by $1.11 to $43.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for August rose by $0.83 to $40.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $2.39 to WTI. Gasoil for July delivery added $5.50.

Today morning oil indexes decrease on the back of a resurgence of COVID-19 globally. Spikes recorded in 37 U.S. states further hindered fuel demand recovery in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer.

New COVID-19 cases in the United States rose by nearly 50,000 on Jul.02, the biggest one-day spike since the start of the pandemic. Numerous states are advising citizens to restrict movements and closing bars and restaurants again, which is expected to hamper further job growth. Data shows that some 2.8 million Americans have already been infected by the Covid-19, with a death toll exceeding 131,000.  A new model by the University of Washington also predicts 200,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by Oct. 1, casting further doubts on economic reopening from lockdowns. As a sign of how seriously the world was viewing the U.S. outbreak, the European Union reopened its borders to visitors from 15 countries earlier this week, but excluded Americans.

At the same time, prices were supported by the U.S. economic data. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 4.8 million in June, the Labor Department reported, beating expectations, even as permanent job losses rose. The upbeat jobs numbers for June garnered much of the attention across markets. But continuing weekly jobless claims increased, suggesting a large part of the labor market still hasn't come back.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed, that crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels from a record high last week (far more than analysts had expected) as refiners ramped up production and imports eased. Gasoline stockpiles were higher, however, and the spike in COVID-19 cases in heavily populated U.S. Sun Belt states (Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, South Carolina, Texas, roughly two-thirds of California), among the country's biggest consumers of gasoline, could hit fuel demand headed into the July 4 holiday weekend, often a busy period for road travel. Crude production, meanwhile, remained unflinching at an estimated 11 million barrels per day.

Baker Hughes reported on Jul.02 that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week, by 2, to 263, showing the second small loss in the number of active rigs in as many weeks after a long streak of major losses. The total oil and gas rigs is now 700 fewer than this time last year. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States has continued to decline over the last seventeen weeks. At the same time, The number of oil rigs decreased for the week by 3 rigs, bringing the total to 185—compared to 788 active rigs this time last year. The total number of active gas rigs in the United States rose this week by a single rig, landing at 76 total rigs. This compares to 174 rigs a year ago.

We expect bunker prices may demonstrate upward changes today: 5-8 USD up for IFO, 3-5 USD up for MGO.