Russia’s export reduction and import growth resulted in decrease of trade balance estimation – IEF study
Imports started recovering in June from the minimum reached in April-May
Russia’s export reduction and import growth over the recent two months force the Bank of Russia decrease estimation of the balance of foreign trade in goods and services, according to the half-year review of the Institute for Energy and Finance (IEF)obtained by IAA PortNews.
“For the second consecutive month, we see the decrease of the Bank of Russia’s estimation of the goods and services trade balance. Obviously, the Bank of Russia sees either export reduction or import growth, or, most likely, both,” explains Sergey Kondratyev, Deputy Head of the IEF Economic Department.
According to the Institute, exports in the first half of 2022 totaled $297.8 billion (almost 1.5 times as much as in the same period of 2021), imports — $117.1 billion (-14%). Despite the sanctions against Russia imposed from February 2022, Russia’s exports in monetary terms are still high owing to the growth of prices for commodities and energy resources. At the same time, June exports to the EU reached its record low from the beginning of the year — $18 billion. In June, exports to ‘unfriendly countries’ decreased with the reduction of gas supplies to Europe and continuing reduction of Russian goods supplies to the U.S., the Institute explains. China and India account for about $10 billion of Russian exports in monetary terms, which is close to a record high result.
“Imports started recovering in June from the minimum reached in April-May. Supplies from Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea rose slightly, imports from the EU and China increased by about 10%, month-on-month,” emphasized Sergey Kondratyev.
