A new survey from maritime research consultancy Drewry reveals significant uncertainty in the container shipping market, driven by the potential reopening of the Suez Canal and anticipated escalation of U.S. tariffs under a possible second Trump administration.
The survey of over 300 shipping stakeholders, predominantly shippers (34%), forwarders (13.7%), and port authorities/terminal operators (10%), indicates widespread expectation of a Suez Canal transit resumption before the close of 2025, coupled with concerns over rising U.S. tariffs.
Osama Rabie, Chair of the Suez Canal Authority, remains optimistic about a swift recovery. "Traffic could start to ramp up by late March and be fully recovered by mid-year, so long as the Gaza ceasefire holds up," Rabie told journalists.
The Drewry survey reflects this sentiment, with 54 percent of respondents expecting Suez transits to resume before the end of 2025, and a further 29 percent predicting a resolution during 2026. However, 2% believe the disruption will persist beyond 2030.
The survey indicates a strong belief among respondents that tariffs will rise, with the most common prediction (32 percent) placing the U.S. effective tariff rate between 5-10 percent by the end of 2025, a significant jump from 2.4 percent in September 2024. A notable 13 percent of respondents anticipate even higher rates, exceeding 20 percent, levels unseen since the Great Depression. China (85 percent), Mexico (76 percent), Canada (73 percent), and the European Union (60 percent) are seen as the most likely targets for these tariffs. Even nations like India (16 percent) and Vietnam (14 percent), often considered alternatives for relocated shipments, are perceived to be at risk.
Drewry is a maritime and shipping research and consulting firm providing independent market insight and advisory services to the global maritime industry.
The Suez Canal Authority is the Egyptian government authority that owns, operates, and maintains the Suez Canal.