Import cargo at major US container ports is expected to experience its first year-over-year decline in over 18 months, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The decrease is attributed to the growing impact of tariffs imposed by the US administration.
"We are starting to see the true impact of the tariffs on the supply chain," said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
Gold cited tariffs imposed since February, including a minimum of 10% on all trading partners, "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of countries announced in April, and a 145% tariff on China.
He noted that these tariffs come "at the most important time in the buying process" for retailers, leading many to pause or cancel orders. Gold added that small retailers are particularly concerned about the future. Global Port Tracker projects imports to decline at least 20% year over year from June into the fall, with the annual volume potentially decreasing by over 10%.
Despite this, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett emphasized that the supply chain is still functioning. "Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines," Hackett said.
He refuted claims of empty container terminals and ships returning mid-voyage, calling such reports "very far from the truth and the reality on the ground."
Final data shows US ports handled 2.15 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in March, up 5.5% from February and 11.3% year over year. April's numbers are projected at 2.2 million TEU, a 9.1% increase year over year. May is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, a 12.9% decrease year over year, ending a 19-month streak of year-over-year growth.
Forecasts for the following months show continued declines: June at 1.71 million TEU, down 20.2% year over year; July at 1.77 million TEU, down 23.4%; August at 1.82 million TEU, down 21.5%; and September at 1.79 million TEU, down 21.2%.
Prior to the new tariffs, forecasts anticipated April at 2.13 million TEU (up 5.7% year over year), May at 2.14 million TEU (up 2.8%), June at 2.07 million TEU (down 3.2%), and July at 1.99 million TEU (down 13.9%). The adjusted forecast places the first half of 2025 at 12.13 million TEU, a 0.3% increase year over year, compared to the 12.78 million TEU (up 5.7%) projected before the April tariffs.
Imports had been elevated since last summer due to concerns over an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and in anticipation of tariff escalations following the November elections. Total imports for 2024 reached 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest since the 2021 pandemic peak of 25.8 million TEU.
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides data and forecasts for major US ports, including those on the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast.
The National Retail Federation is the largest retail trade association globally, representing retailers of all sizes and formats.