Drewry Maritime Research reports a significant decline in newbuilding orders during the early months of 2025 as shipowners hesitate to commit to long-term investments.
The subdued activity, driven by geopolitical disruptions, tariff wars, and concerns over Chinese shipyards, is expected to continue until at least October 2025, with a gradual recovery thereafter.
A more pronounced rebound in new orders is anticipated only from 2028.
Trade uncertainty has escalated due to ongoing US tariff wars and geopolitical tensions, combined with concerns over regulatory developments, including the IMO’s Net Zero Framework (IMO NZF).
Drewry notes that new orders will likely remain muted until the October 2025 IMO session, which may provide clarity if the framework is adopted.
Even then, ordering activity is projected to stay below historical levels until 2027, when clearer incentives for zero or near-zero emissions vessels are expected.
The US tariff disputes have disrupted global trade flows, resulting in unpredictable shipping demand and deterring shipowners from placing new orders.
Additionally, the threat of sanctions on vessels ordered from Chinese shipyards—responsible for over 75% of dry bulk new orders in 2024—has further restrained investments.
So far in 2025, Chinese yards account for only 40% of new dry bulk orders as shipowners avoid risks associated with potential US restrictions.
Though the US government has temporarily suspended enforcement of certain fines, the uncertainty remains a significant deterrent.
Price considerations also play a role. Newbuilding prices are high, and Japanese yards charge roughly 5% more than Chinese yards, intensifying shipowners’ reluctance to commit amid uncertain market conditions.
Many owners are waiting for prices to soften before placing orders.
Finally, regulatory ambiguity regarding environmental compliance requirements weighs heavily on ordering decisions.
The scheduled October 2025 IMO NZF meeting could provide guidance on a global carbon pricing mechanism.
However, Drewry anticipates that meaningful momentum in newbuilding orders will only return after 2027, once emission penalties and incentives are well-defined.
In conclusion, high newbuilding costs, geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and regulatory ambiguity have collectively caused a steep drop in new ship orders in 2025.
Recovery will depend primarily on regulatory clarity and improved trade conditions.
Drewry is a leading independent maritime research and consulting firm specializing in shipping markets, vessel economics, and maritime logistics. It provides data-driven insights and forecasts for shipowners, operators, and investors worldwide.
The IMO is a United Nations specialized agency responsible for regulating shipping. It develops global standards for safety, environmental protection, and security in the maritime industry.