COSCO Shipping and its Hong Kong-listed subsidiary OOIL/OOCL could face a combined bill of just over $2.1 billion in 2026 under the forthcoming port-fee regime targeting Chinese-linked shipping, according to modelling by HSBC’s equity research team.
The analysts estimate COSCO’s 2026 exposure at about $1.5 billion and OOCL’s at roughly $654 million. The scenario assumes a $600 per FEU equivalent cost on a 10,000-TEU vessel, described as a little over a quarter of the latest Shanghai–US West Coast spot rate, and counts 86 COSCO-operated ships calling U.S. ports as of August 1, 2025. USTR actions finalized in April set a six-month grace period at $0 before fees begin on October 14, 2025.
From that date, Chinese operators pay per net ton on each U.S. voyage, and non-Chinese operators using China-built ships pay the higher of a per-net-ton or per-container fee, both rising annually through 2028. Each vessel can be charged no more than five times a year.
While the framework is set, U.S. Customs and Border Protection is still establishing the collection mechanics, and industry expects additional guidance before launch. HSBC frames the impact as uneven across liners. Non-Chinese carriers can largely sidestep the regime by deploying non-China-built ships on U.S. strings.
By contrast, COSCO and OOCL are expected to shoulder most of the exposure on transpacific and transatlantic services unless they reshuffle capacity.
Both carriers have started to adjust. OOCL last month introduced a new Asia–Mexico loop (TLP8) with first sailing on August 20, offering direct calls at Ensenada and Manzanillo and transshipment via Yokohama. Market circulars also flagged a coordinated Asia–Mexico express loop (WSA8/TLP8) in partnership with COSCO, deploying seven ships in the 3,300–4,300 TEU range. COSCO has operated a Mexico Express service since 2024 and has been adding Latin America capacity. OOIL, parent of OOCL, acknowledged the policy risk in last month’s interim results: “The additional port charges levied by the U.S. on Chinese carriers will have a relatively large impact on the Group,” the company said.
COSCO Shipping is a container shipping operator that participates in alliance services and has been expanding capacity on Latin America routes, including a Mexico Express service launched in 2024.
OOIL is the parent company of the OOCL liner brand.