Consultant forecasts better 2012 for ship lines
Container shipping will wrestle with excess capacity through 2011 but vessel supply and demand should come into better balance in 2012, the Journal of Commerce reports quoting consultant Philippe Hoehlinger.
“I expect a moderate improvement in the third quarter, followed by the seasonal slowdown in the last quarter of the year,” the Paris-based consultant said in a quarterly analysis of the industry. “I continue believing that 2012 will be a strong favorable year, as it will toll the bell of the end of the oversupply situation.”
He said concerns over European debt and a weak U.S. economy have affected demand but global container volumes are still expected to rise 8.5 percent this year, compared with an estimated 10.6 percent before the summer.
“The high operating costs and the oversupply situations have had much more impact on liner industry performance than the decrease in demand,” he said. Most carriers have reported second-quarter losses or declines in profit, primarily because of fuel costs and weak rates resulting from excess capacity.
Hoehlinger said oversupply remains a problem but that bunker prices have decreased slightly. He said he expects improved supply-demand balance to help rates rise in the second half of this year and increase at a faster pace in 2012.
Until this year, Hoehlinger’s reports were published by SeaAxis, the container leasing unit of Axis Intermodal Group.
“I expect a moderate improvement in the third quarter, followed by the seasonal slowdown in the last quarter of the year,” the Paris-based consultant said in a quarterly analysis of the industry. “I continue believing that 2012 will be a strong favorable year, as it will toll the bell of the end of the oversupply situation.”
He said concerns over European debt and a weak U.S. economy have affected demand but global container volumes are still expected to rise 8.5 percent this year, compared with an estimated 10.6 percent before the summer.
“The high operating costs and the oversupply situations have had much more impact on liner industry performance than the decrease in demand,” he said. Most carriers have reported second-quarter losses or declines in profit, primarily because of fuel costs and weak rates resulting from excess capacity.
Hoehlinger said oversupply remains a problem but that bunker prices have decreased slightly. He said he expects improved supply-demand balance to help rates rise in the second half of this year and increase at a faster pace in 2012.
Until this year, Hoehlinger’s reports were published by SeaAxis, the container leasing unit of Axis Intermodal Group.