MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Nov 14

The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) slightly decreased on Nov.13:

380 HSFO - USD/MT – 342.15 (-2.93)
180 HSFO - USD/MT – 386.39 (-1.00)
MGO - USD/MT – 661.33 (-1.57)

Meantime, world oil indexes turned into moderate upward movement on Nov.13 after OPEC said it saw no signs of global recession and rival U.S. shale oil production could grow by much less than expected in 2020.

Brent for January settlement increased by $0.31 to $62.37 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose by $0.32 to $57.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.25 to WTI. Gasoil for November delivery gained $0.25.

Today morning oil indexes continue slight upward trend.

The Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mohammad Barkindo, said global economic fundamentals remained strong and that he was still confident the United States and China would reach a trade deal. He also said some U.S. companies were now saying U.S. oil production would grow by just 0.3-0.4 million barrels per day next year - or less than half of previous expectations - reducing the risk of an oil glut next year.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Nov.13 that the U.S. and China were close to finalizing a trade deal, but he fell short of providing a date or venue for the signing ceremony.

As per the IEA report, until about 2025 global oil demand will expand by about 1 percent annually, exceeding 100 million bpd and reaching 105.4 million bpd. After that growth will shrink substantially and demand will reach a plateau at less than 110 million bpd—106.4 million bpd. Also, according to IEA, natural depletion will shrink oil supply and lead to an increase in prices. These, the agency said, could average $90 a barrel in 2030 and $103 a barrel in 2040. Agency also said that even as production growth in the United States slows from breakneck pace of recent years, the world's top oil producer will still account for 85% of the increase in global oil production to 2030, and for 30% of the increase in gas. The higher U.S. output pushes down the share of OPEC members and Russia in total oil production, which is expected to fall to 47% in 2030 from 55% in the mid-2000s.

France, Germany, Britain, Russia, China, Iran as well as the US discussed a new framework at the UN General Assembly in late September. The proposed new deal would have Iran permanently abjuring nuclear weapons, conforming to a long-term framework of peaceful nuclear technology, and contributing to regional stability and noninterference in return for the US lifting sanctions. Restricting the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missiles was set aside for future discussion. There is no any visible reaction from Iran so far.  

In the United States, crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen for a third straight week last week, while refined products inventories likely declined. The forecast expects that crude inventories rose by around 1.6 million barrels in the week to Nov. 8.

The Power of Siberia gas pipeline that will bring Russian natural gas to China, and will start operations in December. The Power of Siberia, one of the largest natural gas pipeline projects in the world, will transport natural gas from the Irkutsk and Yakutia production centers to consumers in Russia’s Far East and to China. Gazprom is dominating gas supplies to many European markets, while it also vies to meet rising Chinese natural gas demand as the country is in the middle of a massive switch from coal-fired to gas-fired heating in millions of homes. Gazprom expects its market share in China to grow from zero to more than 25 percent of Chinese gas imports and to account for 13 percent of China’s gas consumption by 2035. By that year, Gazprom vies to be the number one gas supplier to both Europe and China.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a crude oil inventory draw of 500,000 barrels for the week ending November 7, compared to analyst expectations of a 1.649-million-barrel build. Last week saw a build in crude oil inventories of 4.26 million barrels, according to API data. The EIA’s estimates, however, reported a build of 7.9-million barrels for that week. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending November 1 stayed at the all-time high of 12.6 million bpd for the fifth week in a row.

We expect bunker prices may rise today in a range of plus 1-4 USD.