Demand at key marine fuel hubs slipped 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, according to a joint market survey by Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy.
Q1 volumes were also 2.5% lower compared with Q4 2024.
This marked the first quarter since 2020 in which volumes fell across all top three hubs—Singapore, ARA and Fujairah—suggesting a broader decline in shipping activity.
Total bunker sales across the 17 surveyed locations reached 143.575 million mt in 2024, up 4% from the previous year and the highest since 2019.
If Q1’s trend continues, full-year 2025 volumes would total 141.984 million mt, which would be 1% below 2024 but still above pre-pandemic years.
The survey covers approximately 61.6% of the 233.1 million mt global demand in 2023, as reported by IMO.
Jesper Christensen, managing partner at BlackCoral Energy, noted: “We have seen a significant drop in volumes in the Black Sea and Eastern Med… Even in many parts of Europe we see that volumes are down”.
Panama was the only hub showing growth, with a 24% increase, though this was due to recovery from unusually low Q1 2024 transit levels.
Adrian Tolson from 2050 Marine Energy warned that U.S. tariff policy, geopolitical shifts and emissions rules are creating uncertainty in bunker demand.
Emissions regulations—including EU ETS inclusion, FuelEU Maritime rollout, the Mediterranean ECA and pending IMO GHG rules—are expected to boost demand for biofuels and distillates.
Tolson added that Q2 demand could be unpredictable amid ongoing tariff disruptions, regional ECA impacts and geopolitical instability.
Ship & Bunker is a specialist news and data provider focused on marine fuel markets. Founded in 2020, it conducts quarterly and real-time surveys of bunker sales volumes across major global ports and publishes independent market analysis and price indications.
2050 Marine Energy is a consultancy specializing in marine fuels, emissions policy and energy transition strategies. It collaborates with industry stakeholders and provides market outlooks, regulatory insight and scenario analysis.